Vladimir Putin's popularity surge on American social media

Vladimir Putin's popularity surge in the United States shows why thick data is equally important to big data in the war against misinformation.

Executive Summary: The recent interview of Vladimir Putin by Tucker Carlson has ignited varied reactions on social media platforms like Instagram and Twitter, reflecting deep societal and geopolitical divisions. American responses tend to favor Putin's persona and communication style, contrasting sharply with European criticisms, especially from former Soviet satellite states. This polarization underscores the influence of historical perceptions and current geopolitical tensions on public opinion. Analyzing these dynamics through both machine learning-driven sentiment analysis and human-centered "thick data" interpretation reveals nuanced insights into the dissemination of narratives and the challenges posed by misinformation and foreign propaganda in contemporary digital discourse.

From Likes to Dislikes: Examining Public Reaction to Putin's Media Presence

Once Tucker Carlson’s 2024 interview aired with Vladimir Putin, clips from the three hour conversation were posted on to social media platforms like Instagram and Twitter. In part, the conversational format of the interview contributes to President Putin’s popularity among some Americans. However, the story goes a bit deeper than Tucker Carlson’s three hour show, which has some interesting societal and technological implications for national security.

Typically, sentiment analysis derived from machine learning is able to group enormous data sets from social media comments. A machine learning norm today is the categorization for “negative” or “positive” sentiment analysis. More advanced systems can tells us complex feelings such as “happy” or “angry”. The neural networks behind AI are generating even greater capabilities for sentiment analysis.

However, it takes time to break down and analyze the context as to specifically why commentators are reacting as they are. This is a necessary process to produce a valuable solution from the data. This is where thick data enters the stage. It is human, manual labor on a smaller, sample scale. In this instance, it takes time and knowledge to identify who is who in this digital zoo.

For the Vladimir Putin content, the commentaries in English are mostly a mixture of Americans, Russians, some Spanish speakers, and eastern Europeans. Aside from verified accounts and public documentation, it is how people use language and contextualize their opinions that gives the clues. The positive comments outweigh the negatives from a thick data perspective. Here are the highlights of American perspectives on social media posted to content featuring Vladimir Putin:

• "I knew Putin was a decent guy. They tried to li(e) this is but I knew it. Putin is right and Russia gets my support."

• "when cnn and bcc constantly portrait (portray) someone as a “bad guy”, you should be sure… "

• "Great job, President Putin"

• "who else has started to google moving to Russia"

• "Is it just me or does Putin sound like an intelligent, reasonable person."

• "Putin knows his history and cares for his country while democrats are ruining the United States"

• “Brilliant interview, I am moving to Russia”

• “Thanks for the truth”

• “That’s why Putin has been in power for 22 years. Because he cares about the Russian people and families.”

• “Wow, Putin seems to be a very strong, intelligent person. He spoke so eloquently. Our leaders can’t even have a simple conversation.”

• “Ukraine war aka money laundering for some people including Zelensky”

• “Thank you Putin for sitting down with this man (Tucker Carlson)”

• “So much of what I questioned is now clear. So we as Americans need to demand better from our leaders, news sources and stop allowing billions of dollars get funneled through Ukraine”

Clearly, the lack of historical knowledge, turmoil in American politics, criticism of aid to Ukraine, and polarizing social tensions all contribute to these perceptions. It seems some viewers were unaware of President Putin’s personality, and communication skills. Also, there is a generational perception of Vladimir Putin in the U.S. that comes from memes of him riding a bear. All together, it becomes more understandable, for those of us left perplexed, as to why Americans might view President Putin in such a positive light.

For the most part, European-identifying users/followers seem to be more critical of this content. Those from former Soviet satellite states go into detail on the failures of communism and President Putin’s misleading narratives. A few Russians actually explain the realities of the Russian governmental system. Every once in a while, an American will swoop into the comments section, pointing out the misinformation.

• “Putin is certainly very intelligent and comes across likable in an interview. However, his words do not change thee consequences of his actions - the human suffering. Second, Putin bad does not equal USA good. We can criticize the role of Western Europe and US too. Third, whilst hostile actors outside of Russia may have pushed Putin to feel like he must act, a different leader could have protected Russia’s interests in a better way…don’t fall into the trap of Putin’s personality..”

• “This is all on camera…Mother’s can’t even see the bodies cuz in Russia is not war it is ‘a special operation’. “

• “it’s hard to not like someone for the way they handle themselves or a conversation. Again agree dictators are bad. *side note Putin rides bears shirtless with a shotgun in his hand hate not to like that lol”

• “what is this propaganda. He treats his boys (soldiers) like s***”

• “So many lies. I am Russian and lived in Russia until 2022. My dictator president!

• “What we saw was just Putin sending a message to west. I am really disappointed”

• “Lie Number 1: The purpose of the special military operation in Ukraine is “the ban on all neo-Nazi movements”

• “Stop spreading Russian propaganda just because you’re unhappy about the state of American politics”

• “Unbelievable! I was born in the USSR. I went to elementary school when Putin was president….Putin is still president of Russia. What about checks and balances? What about freedom of speech and human rights which are non existent in Russia? I’m speechless”

• (In Russian) “Putin lies! Not one truthful word out of him”

Typically, the pro-Putin users post threads of emojis and simple phrases to show their unwavering support for Russia. The emojis are several Russian flags 🇷🇺 followed by a string of hearts ❤️ or 🔥. The simple phrases are “from Russia with love” , “We appreciate ur support”, “Mother Russia!” or “Russia!”. Occasionally, the pro-Russian accounts give a more detailed response to the video content that explains President Putin as an intelligent and tough defender of Russia against the West.

While some of the referenced commentaries derive from the Tucker Carlson interview, other responses came from unrelated content. There are several clips from Mr. Putin’s older interviews, press conferences, remarks and engagements, in and outside of Russia, which are being translated into English. The algorithms naturally push the content to people who like or search these themes.

As far as humor goes, Vladimir Putin’s jokes are a hit or miss with Americans. When it is a simple reaction or short quip, his dry humor seems to be fairly appreciated by Americans. However, his Russian jokes and anecdotes do not always come across well to an American audience. This has less to do with Vladimir Putin himself, and more to do with the cultural context of Russian jokes. There is also a good deal of archaic misogyny in his anecdotes, which is frequently a miss.

It is not certain all this content is a public relations effort because some appears to be user generated. Nevertheless, there is an overall, concerted effort to portray a positive image of Mr. Putin in English. Even more so, it seems to be directed at the global English speaking Instagram audience.

Mr. Putin routinely states partial truths, which requires research and knowledge to recognize. Moreover, when Mr. Putin spoke in the past, the audience was mostly limited to Russian speakers, which shielded the broader English speaking American audience. Now, AI models on social media enable Russian messaging to reach greater audiences through language translation.

Although big data is important to identify disinformation and propaganda, thick data analysis is the counter part to interpret the context. Then, the possibility arises to actually counter the narratives. Since misinformation and foreign propaganda are a national security threat, thick data analysis is an essential part of the process.

Also, thick data analysis may assist with protecting free speech by recognizing context. Until there is an AI truth oracle to divine which statements are more factual than not, this issue remains problematic. Luckily, this is a calamity the people can address in small measures. To an extent, the cure is in the disease.

The issue is whether the natural process of people arguing online will be on a large enough scale and, effectively done, to dispel false information, correct bends of the truth, and redirect popular opinion away from foreign sate propaganda.

~E

Gray Truths©️2024