Venezuela's hotspot trifecta

While Bolivarian Forces gather at Guyana's border, Venezuela involves Iran and Russia in its regional schemes

The current level of low-intensity conflict surrounding Venezuela can seemingly turn into major conflict overnight, catching the world by surprise. It is a situation to pay attention to in light of the global interests involved to include the U.S., U.K., Russia, and apparently Iran's proxies, too.

In a curveball, the Iran observer tweeted, or is it X'ed, on March 14th that members of Hezbollah are en route to enable the Bolivarian militia in support of the culturally Latin, politically communist Venezuelan government. If this is indeed true, then the Iranian government plays a role in the border dispute over Essequibo, which is in the culturally Caribbean, politically socialist-democratic nation of Guyana.

The historical debate of Essequibo's ownership, which rests between Guyana and Venezuela, is centuries old and linked to Colonial-era imperialism. Today, Essequibo has become ruthlessly, enchanting territory after a Guyanese exploration discovered massive oil reserves in the rural rainforest. It seems as though Guyana's success as an oil-producing nation, which is estimated to compete per capita with UAE and Saudi Arabia, has caught the ire of the economically struggling state of Venezuela.

In late 2023, Venezuela attempted to invade Guyana under the guise of civil authority for oil exploration and extraction in the "contested" region of Essequibo. The crisis caused high alarm to the West, resulting the U.S. and U.K. to send ships and assets to the region, and Brazil to increase its border defenses. Although Guyanese President Irfaan Ali and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro agreed in December 2023 to not use force for resolution, Venezuela still increased military drills after the negotiations.

This past week, Bloomberg reported Venezuela is increasing its military presence on the border with Guyana. CSIS compiled a comprehensive and detailed report in which researchers describe the Venezuelan construction of a land bridge over the river Cuyuni to connect islands as well as an airstrip. The overall conclusions are that the Venezuelan government is preparing ground structures for logistical support for the purpose of potential invasion. It appears as though Venezuela is taking lessons on hybrid warfare and messaging strategies straight from Russia's playbook.

The Russia connection goes deep with Venezuela, all under the name of communist neighbors and friends. The ally-ship between Venezuela and Russia is Soviet-era old, so in this vein it is nothing new. Circa 2006, Russia made a $5 billion weapons and military equipment trade deal with Venezuela. Fast-forward to 2024, much of Venezuela's Bolivarian forces are armed with Russian supplies that may enable Venezuela to take hold of Essequibo from Guyana. These days Russia likely needs those supplies more than Venezuela does; however, the nation-state relationship does not end at the arms trade.

The timing of the new Russian-Venezuelan energy talks may be linked to the Guyana crisis. In February 2024, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov met in Caracas to discuss energy cooperation and "peacefully nuclear energy" with Venezuelan Delcy Rodriguez. In April 2024, the Kremlin's Press Secretary Peskov announced a future, high priority visit to Russia by President Maduro.

The Iranian connection in Venezuela is all the more curious. A possible Hezbollah presence would certainly make the crisis over Essequibo a new area of proxy warfare between the West, and Russia and Iran.

~E