Turkey’s socio-political combustion impels NATO Allies to Action
With the weight of the Russo-Ukrainian war testing the Alliance, Turkey’s sociocultural instability comes at a critical juncture, compounded by the formation of the shaky Syrian coalitions.
Executive Takeaways:
Brain Drain Concerns: The current situation could risk a “brain drain” as educated Turkish nationals, studying abroad, may choose not to return to Turkey due to perceived social and political oppression.
External Instability: Turkey’s proximity to Syria and the presence of jihadist remnants within its borders make it vulnerable to further instability, potentially resembling Syria’s civil war era.
Implications for Syria: The new interim Syrian government needs a stable Turkey to lean on as it implements a constitutional government and attempts to remove jihadist movements.
Turkey’s Political Trajectory: Turkey is at risk of becoming a politically unstable democracy where religion holds significant influence over governance.
Impact on NATO: Turkey’s shifting perspective on democracy and religion, coupled with its relationships with nations like Russia and Iran, could lead to conflicts with NATO principles and member states.
U.S. and NATO’s Response: The U.S. and NATO must reassess their relationship with Turkey and consider diplomatic measures to address internal strife and the impact of the Syrian Civil War.
The Republic of Turkey’s sociocultural instability, exacerbated by the fragile Syrian coalition’s constitution, comes at a critical moment for the Alliance. Last Wednesday’s political imprisonment of prominent presidential contender Ekrem İmamoğlu from the CHP party has compelled supporters to protest government corruption, surpassing the scale and intensity of the Gezi Park Protests in 2013 as seen on platforms like X. The current protest demographic remains largely unchanged, comprising university students, professors, and the Westward-facing social sector of Turkish society. But the markers of communist flags may appear as the protests continue as in the case with Gezi Park.
The protestors and some Turkish citizens accuse the Erdoğan government of corruption and authoritarianism, a claim furthered by jailed Ekrem İmamoğlu whose popularity soared over the AKP candidate for Istanbul’s 2024 mayoral election. The imprisonment of Istanbul’s mayor is being viewed as an attempt to establish a dictatorship. The thrust of protests and violence swept throughout Turkey over the last week, most prominently in Istanbul and Ankara.
In response, the Erdoğan government labeled the protesters as “terrorists”, still detaining İmamoğlu on charges of corruption and graft with ties to the PKK. Over the past few days, the Turkish government has been arresting protesters across the country in droves. As a result, over the next 2-5 years, Turkey is likely to experience a “brain drain effect” due to perceived or actual social and political oppression.
Globally, Turkish nationals are enrolled in advanced university programs, including the United States, Europe, and Asian nations like Japan. Typically, graduates return home to work in Turkey, but the current situation with tens of thousands of protests nationwide, nearly two-thirds according to AFP, could worsen if Mr. İmamoğlu remains imprisoned. Instead of returning to Turkey, these educated classes, and their families may choose to leave Turkey permanently.
While other nations such as the U.S. and France will gain significantly from the intellectual, pro-democracy capital represented by expatrioted Turkish society, it will have a negative impact on NATO relationships. Although Turkey will retain an educated and hardworking society, their perspective and attitude toward the roles of democracy and religion will be fundamentally different. This fundamental difference will likely run in conflict with NATO principles, and many NATO Members.
Overtime, the Turkish representatives sent to NATO may have an understanding, representing the conservative AKP party, in which the separation of religion and governance is not the prevailing view. Additionally, the conservative party places a high value on relationships with nations that conflict with the NATO Allies, including Russia, Iran, and the proxy-terrorist organizations destabilizing Yemen, Palestine, and Israel.
Moreover, Turkey’s potential brain drain will lead to a disconcerting population gap, which extremist and terrorist organizations may exploit. Turkey is highly vulnerable to further deterioration, especially due to its proximity to Syria. The remnants of jihadists and terrorist organizations still lurk in Turkish rural communities, awaiting return to Syria. Turkey is also home to 3.47 million asylum seekers, primarily from Syria, but the numbers include displaced persons from Central Asia, Russia, Iran, and the Levant Region. At the worst trajectory in the next ten years, Turkey may resemble an early civil war-era Syria circa 2010.
The prospects of stable governance in Syria remain uncertain, stemming from the formation of multiple ideologically diverse, such as the political side of the Syrian Defense Forces, and incompatible coalitions. To further complicate matters, the Assad regime continues to reach for control over certain areas of Syria. Furthermore, the jihadist communities in Turkey, parts of Africa, and in the Levant, which retreated during Operation Inherent Resolve, eagerly anticipate returning to Syria.
These issues raise questions about NATO’s position and Turkey’s role in its future. If the Turkish government continues its current course, Turkey will become a highly unhinged nation where governance is not on an equal footing with religion. At the same time, Syria is attempting to form a constitutional government with quasi-jihadist ideals, transitioning from a dictatorship and civil war. The new Syrian government, and its interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa need a stable Turkey on which to lean.
Considering these circumstances, the United States and NATO must revise their understanding of Turkey’s intricately complex sociocultural dynamics due to internal strife and the impact of the Syrian Civil War. There is an opportune moment to leverage available diplomatic tools to encourage the Turkish government to release Ekrem İmamoğlu for enhanced international security. Otherwise, the United States and NATO Allies must reevaluate their relationship with the Republic of Turkey.
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