The Kremlin searches to connect Ukraine with global terrorism to the UN
The Russian Federation is gathering ‘evidence’ to justify a vote at the UN Security Council for Russian counter terrorism actions in Ukraine.
Executive Summary: The Kremlin searches to connect Ukraine with global terrorism in front of the United Nations. The Russian Federation is gathering ‘evidence’ to justify a vote at the UN Security Council for Russian counter terrorism actions in Ukraine. The Russian Federation is adamant to prove the existence of global terrorist networks on Ukrainian territory. The process of collecting evidence will help the Russian government present a case to argue the necessity for Russian counter terrorism forces in Ukraine. It will enable the Russian military an international security purpose to amplify kinetic actions. Potentially, occupy Ukraine on a greater scale.
Insights to Russia’s strategy to defeat Ukraine through NATO
President Putin does not necessarily require the UN Security Council to take action. Mr. Putin wants the opportunity to present Russia’s case to the International Community. Chiefly, Ukraine's situation poses an international security risk to Eastern Europe. It will behoove President Putin’s position to claim use of international law. Perhaps there is an invisible partner who requires it.
The Russian Federation sees an option with ISIS, which is an established global adversary. Nations who loath each other agreed to collaborate for ISIS's demise. Since the Ukrainian neo-Nazi trope has yet to stick, the Russian government believes jihadism will make do.
It is worth considering Russia's grander schemes for context. Ostensibly, President Putin may want to construct an argument with terrorism examples of ungoverned war torn Ukrainian territory. It will give the Russian Federation the upper hand to occupy Kiev before NATO Allies might arrive in full force.
The terrorist attack this past Saturday at the Crokus City Hall concert venue is the second piece of evidence occurring on Russian soil. Four gunmen used AK 47s to rampage an ethnically diverse group of concert goers. Initial reports from Moscow were 40, increasing to 137 into Sunday night. Certainly, a national tragedy.
In President Putin's initial national address on March 24th, he did not name the organization responsible for the act. Instead, Mr. Putin alluded to the performers and to hold whomever responsible, in whatever facet, accountable. Interestingly, Mr. Putin emphasized twice Ukraine’s vague role. He explained the gunmen headed in the direction of Ukraine and some arrangements occurring in Ukrainian territory.
For Russia, Ukraine is a geographic exit/enter node to and from Europe. Regardless of purpose, Russian citizens frequently transit this northern route. Naturally, there is nothing usual here. There are more oddities to the story.
Within a few hours of the attack, Russian news presented a deepfake as fact. It purported Ukrainian intelligence chief Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov admitting Ukraine's culpability. One might say a rather quick turnaround for AI generated content. Social media had more tales to tell.
Locally, wanted posters of Caucasian gunmen were revealed by neighbors to be bandits killed in Ingushetia last February. In Tajikistan, men posted selfies with their passports. Apparently, these men found their images on wanted posters in Russia related to the attack. Over 24 hours better information flowed.
ISIS news outlet Amak claimed responsibility. But, the gunmen's video footage had idiosyncrasies. Typically, ISIS stamps content. This video was published unmarked. There is a second irregularity.
ISIS jihadists want full credit for their sacrifices. In the gunmen’s self portraits, the faces were blurred heavily. The voices were muffled beyond recognition. Of note, all this video editing occurred within the few hours between the team's exit and capture.
The USG warned Russia of impending attacks from the Khorasan branch of ISIS, which aligns with the gunmen’s Tajik ethnicity. Bizarrely, President Putin dismissed the warnings as “destabilizing” and “blackmail” to Russian news outlet TASS days prior. It is common for governments to warn one another of terrorist attacks regardless of strained relationships.
There is more. A theory generating steam is the FSB staged the attack. Evidence for such a postulation is more difficult to present aside from historical anecdotes. One comes to mind which relates to Ukraine’s situation.
In the early 1990s the Chechen military leadership of the Ichkerian Republic agreed to meet in a woodland cabin with Russian leadership for a ceasefire. It seemed the war would end. Once inside, a bomb detonated killing all key leadership of the Ichkerian forces. A pivotal loss to their efforts.
Conspiratorially, the Russian military never arrived at the meeting. Ukrainian Lt. Gen. Budanov claims to have outmaneuvered 11 assignation attempts. The Ukrainian government’s leadership sleeps with one eye open for good reason.
The overall situation is many things, but simple is not one of them. For the second time in five months Ukraine has been implicated in Russia's domestic terrorism issues. The March 23rd Krokus City Hall terror attack of 2024 is number two.
Incident number one occurred on October 29th, 2023. A mob of men swarmed the Makhachkala Airport in Dagestan. The horde was on a rampage to seek and kill Israeli nationals and Jewish people on the flight line. President Putin's national address on this specific incident was curious.
President Putin placed sole blame on Ukraine and its "neighbors" for orchestrating the mob violence. There was no mention of Dagestan’s lingering threads of radicalism. Nor the overarching connection to the Russian Federation’s contribution to the epic global jihadism epedemic merely a few years prior. By March 26th 2024, Mr. Putin acknowledged ISIS’ responsibility at Krocus City Hall but maintains Ukrainian territory as a node in the terrorist network.
Seemingly, Russia branding Ukraine with liability has a specific purpose. The Russian Federation is resolute in leveraging Russian counter terrorism forces in Ukraine. The efficacy with which these forces perform could enable Russia's military success in Ukraine. By eliminating military figures and assets that the Russian Army is unable to maneuver.
It seems President Putin's goal is to defeat Ukraine on the premise of global terrorism. Whether it be jihadism or Nazism. To accomplish its aim, Russia must weaken Ukraine’s military leadership first through counterterrorism operations. If these operations receive any international support from UN Security Council members China, Algeria, Guyana, or Ecuador, the better for Russia's global posture.
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