The Kremlin reaps what its sows
The Russian Federation's role in cultivating oppressive environments leaves room for jihadist culture to grow in Eurasia.
The ISIS-K attack at Crocus City Hall and Makhachkala airport rampage are separate incidences connected to an overarching problem. The Russian government dodges accountability for the cultural and socio-economic instabilities within Russia and its neighboring Muslim satellite states. In effect, Russia is complicit in the environments in which jihadist networks grow and operate.
Since 2014, the Tajik networks of ISIS function in a mostly supportive capacity within the broader ISIS Russian-speaking global community. Specifically, ISIS-K evolved as an ethnically Persian representation of the historic regions of Khorasan that includes people from Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. ISIS's goal has been to establish regions for a global caliphate.
Around the 2016-2017 timeframe, ISIS-K membership grew drastically as a result of Russian-speaking networks. A linguistic legacy of the former Soviet Union. As Operation Inherent Resolve amped up, the ISIS combatant ranks of ethnic Syrians, North Africans, and Caucasians started to die out. ISIS-K members began taking on more prominent positions. Evidently, there is still an active network.
Tajikistan, an impoverished nation itself, is the source of migrant labor for Moscow. In President Putin's national address, there was no mention of the economic and social conditions of Tajik laborers in Russia. Also left redacted are the societal repercussions in Tajikistan after the men return. In particular, one problem for the Tajik government are laborers who return with HIV infecting their wives which, in some instances, passes to the children. When religiously extreme groups promise holistic solutions to address such problems, people without options sign up.
President Putin named ISIS-K responsible for the death toll of 140 people at Crocus City Hall on March 22nd, 2024. There are four Tajik gunmen with bruised and bloody faces awaiting trial in Moscow. There is little doubt the Russian court will render maximum sentences to these four men along with other detained co-conspirators. The Russian counterterrorism forces are effective at capturing bandits and terrorists. The Russian government consistently enforces punishment for terrorism acts. These are not necessarily points of argument here.
Mr. Putin's national response to the gun violence at Crocus City Hall demonstrates the consequences of the Russian government's poor leadership to its neighbors. Tajik Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin spoke against the torture of the suspects, indicating that confessions under these conditions are questionable. Prior to the attack in 2023, Tajik President Rahmon named it a "lack of respect" referencing Russia's absent investment in and care of the former Soviet Central Asian states. These nations defer to President Putin, but some leaders are publicly questioning the benefits of the security and economic arrangements to Russia.
President Putin blaming Ukraine and NATO Allies as the core conspirators accountable for this attack further illustrate the point. Although ISIS-K claimed responsibility, Mr. Putin labeled Ukraine and the West complicit using vague terms about Ukrainian territory. Conspiratorially, the Russian president holds the U.S., and Ukraine accountable for "fostering" terrorism to destabilize Russia.
Bizarrely, President Putin has blamed Ukraine and the Allies for domestic Russian terrorism issues twice in the past 5 months. The first such incident occurred on October 29th, 2023, when a racially charged mob of men rampaged the Makhachkala airport in Dagestan. Mr. Putin held Ukraine and its "neighbors" (vaguely insinuating the U.S.) as accountable.
Ironically, the hub of jihadist culture for last twenty years has been Russian-speaking networks nested in Dagestan. These same cultural networks facilitate the aforementioned mobs and organized attacks. Whether it is ISIS, al-Nusra, or independent jihadists groups, the mentality of these networks still lives. In one form or another, the anger over domestic conditions ties back to the Russian government.
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Gray Truths©️2024