The Eurasian Dynamics of the Ukrainian War

A concerted effort involving both European and Asian fronts is necessary to exert meaningful pressure on Russia in Ukraine.

Executive Summary: This article discusses Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's concerns at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, focusing on China's influence in dissuading nations from attending the Peace for Ukraine Summit. It highlights Russia's Eurasian identity and its geopolitical ties with China, stressing the need for a comprehensive strategy addressing both European and Asian dynamics in the Ukraine conflict.

Russia's Eurasian Identity and the Ukraine Conflict: Zelenskyy's Observations

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted a crucial aspect of the war during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on June 2, 2024. Specifically, President Zelenskyy mentioned China’s role in dissuading nations from participating in the Peace for Ukraine Summit later in June. The impact of Asian nations to the conflict emphasizes not only the relationship between Russia and China, but also Russia’s ties across Central Asia. This interconnectedness underscores the Eurasian identity of Russia, which is a decisive component to influence the outcome of the Ukraine war due to allegiances across Asia and Europe.

Russia is fundamentally a Eurasian nation, blending cultural traits and political allegiances of Asian, Caucasian, and Slavic peoples. Demographically, while most Russians identify as Asian, Caucasian or Slavic, nearly 55% have Mitin R1a1 DNA of the Eurasian Steppes, reflecting their shared heritage. This genetic connection symbolizes deeper roots in common with history, mentality, and way of life, which, in turn, influence political alliances.

The geopolitical bond between Russia and China extends to their peoples. As Chinese expert Andrew Huang explains, the more isolated the Chinese and Russians become from Europe and the U.S., the closer they feel as "outcasts" to the West. This sentiment is reflected in China's decision to opt out of the Peace Summit in Switzerland, citing Russia's exclusion as a primary reason. Beyond cultural and historical ties, the geopolitical and economic alliances between Russia and China are equally significant.

China's absence from the Summit is not merely sentimental but indicative of the strategic, geopolitical alliance with Russia. Their economic interdependence, particularly through the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline, is a prime example. China relies on Russian natural gas for its economic growth, while Russia seeks to offset revenue losses due to U.S. sanctions.

Nations with significant business ties, like China and Russia’s trade valued at $240 billion, often develop aligned political strategies. Despite modern capitalist practices, elements of communist mentality persist in both China and Russia. While referring to Russia as a communist nation is technically inaccurate, the collectivist mindset remains influential, even as free market access has evolved.

The shared communist roots of Russia and China, along with North Korea, shape their core values. The Russian-speaking Internet is full of content that details the cultural importance of China in Russia’s development. Russian society, influenced by Chinese thought, particularly in literature, philosophy, food, and sport, reflects this cultural exchange that extends to international security.

In warfare strategy, China’s classical thinking also impacts Russia, which aspires to emulate China's tradecraft in media persuasion, economic leverage, and cultural preservation. The Russian Federation weaponizes information with AI and cyber systems leveraging hacker networks, but takes less precaution to mask its more surreptitious activities than the PRC.

China's influence is subtle, as seen in debates over TikTok and its foreign investments, which blends social projects with infrastructure development. Russia, by contrast, often leaves a trail of its clever schemes. This complementary approach is evident in Central Asia, where Russo-Chinese alignment impacts regional governance and social dynamics, affecting the Ukraine war.

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) exemplifies its economic expansion into Central Asia, creating dependencies through infrastructure loans. Russia, meanwhile, strives to maintain its influence in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan in the Eurasian Economic Forum. Central Asian leaders, pressured by both China and Russia, find it challenging to support Ukraine openly.

However, signs of resistance are emerging. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are transitioning the alphabet from Cyrillic to Latin, distancing themselves from Russian culture. Tajikistan, heavily indebted to China, has shown some resistance to Russian dominance, with President Rahmon criticizing Russia's lack of investment and care. Kazakh Foreign Minster Tokayev publicly pushes back on topics important for Russia. Chiefly, nuclear weapons and non-acceptance of Donetsk and Lugansk as breakaway regions.

These signals indicate Russia's declining influence in Eurasia, but China is poised to fill the void through the BRI. Despite these shifts, the power balance in Central Asia remains insufficient to tip the scales in favor of Ukraine’s desired outcome. Russia's influence in the Caucasus region, another key component of its power, remains relatively stable.

Armenia's recent expulsion of Russian troops and its bid for EU membership mark significant developments. These actions echo Armenia’s continued irritation with the Kremlin over land disputes with Azerbaijan, forcing President Putin to come to the negotiation table. However, Georgia's pro-Russia legislation on Foreign Agents and Azerbaijan's alignment with Moscow suggest that the Caucasus region still supports Russia to some extent.

Russia operates as a Eurasian entity, with Europe being only one part of its power structure. Currently, it faces significant challenges in Europe but retains stability in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Russia’s economic ties with China bolster these efforts. To effectively pressure Russia in the Ukraine conflict, efforts must also focus on its Asian and Caucasian borders.

Over the past decade, NATO's strategic focus has been predominantly European. Recently, the U.S. has tried to curb Russian obfuscation in trade via Chinese banks and business. Nevertheless, President Zelenskyy’s concerns about China's influence on Ukraine's independence are valid and highlight the need for a broader geopolitical strategy. Recognizing Russia as a Eurasian nation, rather than splitting it into European and Asian components, can better inform defense and diplomacy strategies.

This perspective acknowledges the geographic and cultural realities that shape Russia’s strategic positioning. Fundamentally, recognizing Russia as a nation and a people deeply intertwined with its Asian neighbors is crucial for developing effective strategies to support Ukraine. A concerted effort involving both European and Asian fronts is necessary to exert meaningful pressure on Russia to support Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty.

Addressing the full scope of Russia's Eurasian identity is the first step towards a more nuanced and effective strategy.

~E

Gray Truths©️2024