Russia has no exit strategy in Ukraine

Mr. Putin is betting against the will of NATO, Western Europe, and the American People to announce victory at the Russian National Assembly

Executive Summary: President Putin's Ukraine strategy relies on nuclear threats and Western division, risking his presidency if unsuccessful. Internal dissent and public discontent underscore his political vulnerability, exacerbated by potential territorial losses in Ukraine and limited leadership alternatives.

Putin's Presidency at Risk: Ukraine and Political Fallout

Russia has no exit strategy in Ukraine. Mr. Putin is betting against the will of NATO, Western Europe, and the American People to announce victory at the Russian National Assembly. President Putin's strategy in Ukraine hinges on two key things working out in his favor. The first is the threat of nuclear escalation while betting Europe will kneel. The second is betting against the will of the American people to continue supporting the longevity of democracy in Europe; through funding NATO and continuing to send Ukraine aid. If those two things do not work out in Mr. Putin's favor, his Presidency becomes at risk.

Mulling these strategic points, I stumbled upon this video of Vladimir Zhirinovsky circulating on Russian social media. Mr. Zhirinovsky was a 1990s Russian politician, ultranationalist, far right wing. He's deceased now. The video is an impassioned speech he gave to the Russian State Duma in 1998. He explains, in a bit of a rant, how Russia should never have allowed Belarus and Ukraine to leave Russia. That Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians are the same as a people, as an ethnicity, as a culture. Mr. Zhirinovsky goes further: the tanks, the jets and the weapons in Belarus and Ukraine are Russian. So, if there is ever a conflict, they will fire our weapons on us.

The comments section is the most interesting bit. Russian people are saying, what a legend, he was a prophet, he's telling the truth, I worked in this USSR and administration at this time and everything he is saying is true, Zhirinovsky should have been president, not Putin, Putin is messing things up in Ukraine. These comments reflect Mr. Putin's political base.

If the Russian Federation must concede all its territorial gains in Ukraine, President Putin will not receive favor in his party Russia 1. Indeed, Mr. Putin will face the elite and educated portion of his political base. He will then explain why, unlike Mikhail Gorbachev who permitted Ukraine’s exit, he Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin lost Ukraine. That will be a sum of two major losses for Russia. That outcome will risk his presidency. All else being equal, it is unlikely that Russia will leave Ukraine in the estimable future.

There is tremendous vulnerability in the outcome of Ukraine for President Putin. The only hitch is there is not someone else who can really fill his shoes.

In the end, everyone has a boss.

~E

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