Russia is dancing with nukes
A conventional war between Russia and NATO Allies hasn't even started. And, the Russian President is already threatening to use nuclear weapons in Europe.
Russia is demonstrating that it can maintain a level of low intensity conflict with Ukraine on its own. But, Ukraine with the force of the Allies, is a different story. In the event of that scenario, Russia will be in the position of firing on Allied Members, which could trigger an Article five for NATO. A conventional war between NATO and all that entails by land, sea and air, will leave the Russian Federation on the losing side.
In the aftermath, Ukraine will be the least of Russia's worries. We'll start to see revolutions and free elections popping out of the woodwork all along Russia's border. Armenia is even raising its hand for EU membership. A Russian loss to NATO will signal the end of Russia's influence in Eurasia. The stakes are immense if one considers Russia’s national interests for power along its border.
Despite the weak position this type of posturing reveals about Russia, it does not mean President Putin is bluffing. Whether the General on the other end of that call flips the switch and turns the key, is another story.
President Macron’s plea that the ‘possibility of sending troops’ should not be ruled out by NATO Allies did proceed President Putin’s implication of a nuclear war. President Putin claims his assertion of nuclear war was merely a response to France’s position.
The German Chancellor Mr. Scholtz was quick to emphasis that “sending troops, ground forces” was not an option after President Macron’s remarks. Likely in an effort to cool the political heat. French citizens protested President Macron’s suggestions with anti-war posters in Paris.
Let us not forgot, the Russian President has mentioned the use of nuclear tactical weapons in the fall of 2023. Lest we ignore Russia providing such arms and launch authority to Belarus last year. If we are looking for context, President Macron is hardly the instigator.
That which constitutes a threat to Russia these days is interpretative at best. Since Ukrainian elections are an example of an '“attack on Russia” it explains Poland’s fears. Setting aside the motivational phase to “not be cowards”, President Macron’s remarks seem to be reactionary to Russia’s physical actions and Ukraine’s need for soldiers.
As a result of Russia’s mention of the destruction of humanity, Europeans are in a state of social angst. Meanwhile, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has made several strong arguments to justify a moment of ‘we told you so’ when it comes to the lengths Russia will go. If General Patton were alive, he would be saying the same.
Russia’s dance with nukes is a lonely one, indeed.
~E
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