Dagestan's terrorism fires will spread outside of Russia

Derbent and Makhachkala's terrorist incidents demonstrate the impact of Russian ISIS networks and potential for spill over to Europe, the U.S. and Levant region.

Executive Summary: Dagestan is facing severe social issues including poverty, corruption, and prolonged armed conflict, resulting in regional instability with international implications. The North Caucasus' turmoil is affecting diaspora communities globally, while asylum seekers from the region are becoming potential targets for jihadist recruitment. Russia’s inadequate socio-economic responses and dismissive stance towards rising terrorism, exemplified by a recent ISIS-linked attack, pose a significant threat to global security, necessitating heightened alertness from Western nations.

The Impact of Dagestan’s Social Issues on Global Security

Dagestan is imploding due to rampant poverty, corruption, and decades of inadequately addressed armed conflict. The instability of the North Caucasus, a delicate social ecosystem, sends ripples internationally, affecting diaspora communities in the Levant, Europe, and the U.S. Asylum seekers fleeing these dangerous conditions become potential audiences and recruitment pools for jihadist organizations.

The desperation of people in this region and the harsh realities of their neighborhoods fuel the will of jihadists. The Russian Federation’s recent superficial response to socio-economic conditions, even blaming the U.S. for the ISIS-Khorasan attack in Moscow, has made the situation more perilous. On June 23rd 2024, 9 men associated with ISIS killed 20 people, including an orthodox priest and set fire to a synagogue, in a series of targeted gun violence. President Putin's dismissive stance might allow the jihadist threat to remain unchecked, potentially leading to a resurgence of jihadist activity outside of Russia.

Faced with an impending decentralized ISIS resurgence, President Putin’s uncooperativeness with Europe and mistrust of the U.S. should place Western nations on heightened alert. The Russian Federation may not contain the threat, as evidenced by its statements downplaying accountability for previous incidents, and the ongoing deadlock over the war in Ukraine.

Indicators of Social Distress

During the 2024 June Presidential Academy, Mr. Putin claimed that Russia is a burgeoning place of opportunity, boasting the 4th largest economy in the world according to the World Bank. This raises the question: why is there such desolate poverty in Dagestan, where terrorist attacks mirror war zones, for a major world power and advanced nation?

Aside from news reporting, there are several social indicators suggestive that Dagestan is on the brink of implosion. This is evident in social media content shared amongst locals. (#5, #4) For instance, a woman expressed that the Krasnodar government does not care about their plight despite repeated requests for assistance, simply because they are poor. (#1)

“No one cares,” she said, pointing out that while Ukraine and Palestine receive attention, the plight of the Dagestani goes ignored. She infers problems related to poor infrastructure, water and electric shortages, which locals frequently protest to gain public attention. The background video footage of the latest series of attacks, filmed by locals, clearly shows the poverty in Derbent and Makhachkala. (#10)

Another issue is the disappearance of people in Dagestan after arrests and imprisonment, with families receiving no transparency from the courts or law enforcement. In one case, an elderly woman was affected by police over a dispute concerning the detainment of her son. (#2) Equally, there are incidents of brutality and torture by law enforcement, extending to Ossetia, Chechnya, and Kabardino-Balkeria as well.

While terrorist networks are undoubtedly problematic in Dagestan, bad governance exacerbates this enduring social epidemic. For instance, footage shows Russian counterterrorism units searching an unfinished building, with a woman’s fearful voice explaining that people never know when the police might arrive and harm them. (#3) With minimal judicial recourse, it highlights the already precarious situation.

Governance and Terrorism

The Russian-speaking jihadist community, especially from the North Caucasus, play a powerful role as the action arm for global terrorist networks. Culturally, Muslim communities originating from the Caucasus are influential across Turkey, the Middle East, and Central Asia. Caucasians, especially Chechens and Avars, garner significant respect due to their warrior cultures in many regions of the Muslim world, translating to power within jihadist networks.

The attacks on synagogues and churches on June 23rd in Derbent and Makhachkala are alarming, but the conditions for such incidents have been simmering. The breadth of the attack, including gunmen shooting at a crowded beach on the Caspian Sea, shows organization and planning. (#7) The attackers, dressed in black uniforms with carefully styled beards, show indicators of an ISIS connection. (#8) A strange emblem on one attacker’s uniform may indicate an evolving offshoot, but this is yet to be confirmed.

Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov quickly offered condolences and help, but in the past has claimed that Chechnya no longer suffers from these “terrorist issues”. The Chechen Republic uses elimination and eradication policies targeting Wahhabism, identifying it as the ideological instigator. Nevertheless, by physically eliminating the ideology the attackers now assault neighboring republics, Europe, and the Levant. Occasionally, the U.S. feels the ripple effects, as seen in the infamous case of the Tsarnaev brothers and related incidents in Florida in 2013.

Not all assailants were Dagestani; one was likely of North African origin, further indicating a larger network like ISIS. It seems that two of the attackers were ethnically Chechen, not Dagestani, based on video footage. (#8) Two of the attackers were sons of “Russia 1” party member and local official Magomed Omarov, illustrating the extent to which Dagestan’s shattered community is vulnerable to grave instability.

Chechnya’s elimination policies have killed many insurgents and terrorists, but the resulting spillover across the North Caucasus, spreading into Europe, is still alive online. A current trend has jihadist groups hiding under Islamic titles, as this one went by the name “Al-Azaim”. The dispersed and hidden structure for Russian-speaking ISIS and Al-Nusra terrorists bands is rather typical, but makes it challenging to counteract.

The local Dagestani community is aware of its problems, realizing the state is unlikely to address them. The popularity of Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) places Caucasian sportsmen in the position to highlight the region’s issues and encourage calm. Their influence on the government may be limited, except for celebrities like Khabib Nurmagomedov, but their online presence helps socially and culturally.

Soon after the attacks, members of #fightnight in Dagestan emphasized that “terrorism is faceless” and “has no nationality”. (#11) In the end, the male sports community could be a strong counterbalance to Dagestan’s social ailments and failed governance. However, the solution is not simple as one of the terrorists was Gadjimurad Kagirov, an MMA fighter.

Dagestani journalist Israfil Israfilov cited a Russian counterterrorism expert on television who recently visited Makhachkala. As Mr. Israfilov explains, the “expert” misinterpreted a woman in hijab walking with her husband as an implied threat, a misrepresentation by influential officials that conflates social tensions. Mr. Israfilov argues the stereotyping of Dagestan’s Muslim community by experts and officials is part of Russia’s counterterrorism problems.

The Russian Federation’s self-inflicted ignorance of its severe governance issues leaves Dagestan in a perpetual state of dysfunction. The refusal to clearly distinguish between the threat and the religion, between criminals and ordinary people, will continue to leave the Russian Federation—and by extension, Europe, the Levant, and the U.S.—vulnerable to cyclical ISIS-style terrorist assaults on the public.

Russian politician in Dagestan Sergey Melikov commented that the terrorist incidents, both several and diverse, involve a Western conspiracy in connection to Ukraine. While the Russian Federation awaits a formal announcement from Vladimir Putin, it can be expected that the blame will be directed at ISIS, the U.S., and Europe as it was for the Makhachkala airport rampage and Moscow Crocus City hall attack.

~E

Gray Truths©️2024

Social Media References (warning videos contain acts of violence)

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