Armenia votes West, a strategic messaging opportunity for Ukraine

Russia's border states are waiting for the right moment to jump and Armenia recognized good timing

Executive Summary: Armenia votes West, a strategic messaging opportunity for Ukraine. Russia's border states are waiting for the right moment to jump and Armenia recognized good timing. In the heat of the night, Armenia let Russia know it will be aligning with the European Union and Western Europe. However, it was the manner in which Armenia ended a 22 year old forces agreement that left the Russian Federation scrambling for words. It comes not as a huge surprise given Prime Minister Pashinyan's comments towards the Russian Federation over the last year.

Armenia's decision to make the move is a strategic messaging opportunity. Armenia is one of several autonomous sovereign states bordering Russia expressing dis-interest in seconding prerogatives to those of the Russian Federation. Despite having assumed this issue was solved thirty years ago, there are sovereign satellite states that still find the need to pushback.

The situation reveals the Russian Federation's dwindling influence in Eurasia. Russian Press Director Maria Zakharova was left stating that Armenia did not notify using "agreed up channels". Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's press secretary, seemed stranded on Russian television, explaining to the public "we're monitoring the situation and we're leaving diplomatic channels open for communication."

Armenia notified Moscow to recall and remove Russian soldiers currently placed at Yerevan's Zvartnots airport. As the Soviet Union fell, agreements such as this circa 1992 kept Russia's border nations in check while gifting state autonomy. An attitude to which Mr. Pashinyan has retorted that Russia has never been Armenia's keeper.

There are more profound indicators of Armenia's path. In late February, Armenia signaled interest to join the European Union. By March 12th, the European Parliament passed a resolution to enable Armenia’s candidacy. In the same week, Prime Minister Pashinyan met with President Macron. Allegedly there was conversation that led others to believe Armenia may leave the Eurasian, yet Russian led, Collective Security Treaty Organization. Also, Armenia is steadfastly against the war in Ukraine. Combined, it raises the prospect of a NATO candidacy if Armenia shops for new security partners.

The Russian Federation does behold Armenia in certain respects. Mr. Pashinyan saw a window of opportunity to navigate away. He took it. Ending the 1992 forces agreement is the poetic jab, because it gives way to new security agreements.

Armenia has substantial trade agreements with Russia and is a member of the Russian led Eurasian Economic Forum. Economically Russia holds some strings. When Russia bites back at Armenia, it will be over these trade agreements. It is vital Western European nations and the U.S. provide a trade back-stop for Armenia during its western transition.

In the big picture, Armenia's bold posturing indicates Russia’s teetering influence in Eurasia. Armenia, and former Soviet leaders, likely recognize that the Russian Federation is in a box. With troops and resources going to Ukraine, and now an announcement to direct forces along Finland's border, places strain on the Russian military’s flex. There is the possibility Russia will send forces to Kaliningrad or Moldova to posture more aggressively against Western Europe sending forces to Ukraine. These actions collectively stretch Russia's military to a more urgent adversary.

Former Soviet nations may see an opportunity through diversion to pursue autonomous governance. The mentality is simple; if Russia is busy over there then it cannot maintain retaliatory low-intensity conflict over here. It is a risky move with reward.  

Perhaps satellite nations want EU membership, perhaps these nations seek democracy, or perhaps these nations simply want autonomy from Russia’s influence in their domestic affairs. No matter the reason, this form of strategic messaging will work in Ukraine's favor.

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