For nearly fifty years, NFL has dominated American sports culture. Broadcast ratings for the Super Bowl routinely exceed 100 million viewers with the 2026 Super Bowl reaching 124 million viewers. The league’s television contracts are worth 100 billion dollars, creating a media industry in and of itself.

Yet cultural dominance in sports is not permanent in the United States. Professional baseball was once America’s pastime, too.

The 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan offered a glimpse of this cultural shift towards the NHL. The most discussed image from the tournament captures the moment perfectly: Olympic gold medalist Jack Hughes, blood on his face, teeth cracked, an American flag draped over his shoulders. The photograph spread rapidly across social media, from Instagram to LinkedIn.

Looking at it, you can almost hear Queen’s anthem “We Will Rock You” echoing in the background. His fist raised to the roar of the crowd.

The image resonates not because of the violence of the moment – the blood, the shattered teeth – but for what it represents. Hughes had taken a high stick to the face early in the third period. He could have left the game. Instead, he returned to the ice and assisted a team play to secure an Olympic gold medal for Team USA.

It is his endearing perspective on the game, despite seeing his teeth on the rink, that brings people in. His “love for America”, and “For the brotherhood” he said afterwards.

That spirit, the willingness to risk personal comfort for something larger than oneself is the real draw. Americans aren’t celebrating a broken mouth. They’re celebrating grit, sacrifice, and loyalty to a team. What’s more, Jack Hughes was unabashedly and steadfastly proud to be an American and represent the U.S.A.

Americans, by birth or by choice, are all doing something similar in their unique life journeys. We fight and sacrifice for the success of our families, our country, organizations, or companies. Sometimes all of the above. We do this individually, in our own capacities, as part of the greater society that is the United States of America.

Collectively, we are the living force that maintains and evolves the idea that is the American Dream. Overly commoditized games drown out this idealistic spirit, causing people to start looking elsewhere to participate in professional sports that mirror life. Not necessarily as an escape, which tends to be the cynical view of spectatorship.

Jack Hughes admittedly felt obligated to carry on to get his team “out of that pickle I put us in.” Every player on the ice is doing their individual best. At times failing. The lack of hesitation and effort to bring it all together for the team win resonates with the greater American audience.

Hockey is physical struggle. It’s tough. It’s fast. The players look perpetually exhausted.

People understand what it feels like to go through physical pain. It’s a universal truth that in life there is suffering - noted in ancient scriptures from the First Noble Truth to the Bible. Though, as tough as life gets, we hope to come out the other side a winner, even if worse for the wear. Or take a loss, but now one the wiser.

Historic moments like those preserved in this photograph reverberate across society when it symbolizes something audiences believe embodies the cycle. Hockey is still a rough, raw contact sport. By and large, Americans don’t want to see a player injured. Professional athletes are not disposable gladiators, which turns sacrifice into spectacle.

For the better, new NFL regulations keep players safer. For worse, the NFL has lost the living connection to the audience that occurs during the ebb and flow of risk. With an American audience, professional sports resonate most when they reflect that competitive reality.

For decades, professional football embodied that spirit. The NFL once felt like an everyman game. There’s a massive female fanbase. Today, that connection is fading.

The league has grown expensive and increasingly difficult to access for most incomes. Stadium experiences are costly. Fans navigate multiple streaming services, which has a tail of preparation, every week just to watch.

One full season increasingly requires a handful of individual subscriptions, as games are distributed across traditional broadcast networks and streaming platforms. There’s Amazon that streams Thursday night football, while Peacock owns Sunday nights and ESPN has Monday nights. YouTube acquired NFL Sunday rights.

Fans can watch snippets of all the games on the NFL app – assuming the viewer doesn’t mind replays over live plays. As well as no allegiance to one team. This fragmentation has created what many viewers describe as subscription fatigue.

Ironically, this shift occurs in a country built on capitalism and commerce. Americans support business and competition. What they resent is feeling like commodities themselves. When fans gather to watch a game, they want to feel part of something genuine unfolding in real time. Fans recognize that struggle because it resembles real life.

Authenticity matters.

The contrast with the NFL is complicated. For the better, the NFL media coverage represents contemporary culture and personalities. Political controversies and league stances on social issues can make the NFL feel less like a shared community experience. The highly politicized environments and overly commoditized professional football games dilute fan spirit.

The NFL often presents as a curated entertainment product. It causes Americans to seek inspiration elsewhere.

The brand also has taken on an elite persona that distances it from ordinary fans. On the other hand, NHL hockey retains the rough, immediate, and unfiltered qualities that allow fans to participate in the play rather than contemporary dialogue. More like a distant battleground, pitting ideologies and principles, which pushes fans toward sports that feel risk-driven and game-focused.

That is part of hockey’s growing appeal.

The focus is on the action of the play. So, the audience feels part of the play. There is no shortage of physicality. It’s fast. There are no illusions. Just look at the high fanfare over the Netflix documentary America’s Sweethearts: Dallas Cowboy’s Cheerleaders 2024, which scored 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, that embodies the definition of athletic challenge and teamwork.

Other leagues, to be fair, including the National Basketball Association (NBA) and Major League Baseball (MLB), remain more popular than professional hockey. However, the game weighs heavily on individual plays and exceptional athletes with star-driven narratives. Think LeBron James and Deion Sanders.

MLB is a game ruled by numbers. The game pacing is slower. Some argue similar rational as to why professional soccer does not catch on stateside as it does globally.

Hockey’s continuous play creates a different viewing experience. One defined by constant motion and all encompassing physical team efforts. Much like football.

Yet that same process has softened the sense of raw risk that once connected fans emotionally to the game. The catch-22 is that people relate to the emotional and physical struggle. When the environment departs from this central theme it impacts viewer participation.

That authenticity shapes perception as well.

NFL players are typecast as wealthy, elite celebrities, while NHL players (though equally talented and expensive to develop) retain a reputation for being more down-to-earth. For many blue-collar Americans, that distinction gels as it did in the 1930s, propelling professional baseball as America’s (historic) pastime.

Hockey may now be entering a similar moment.

At the February 25, 2026 Tampa Bay Lightning game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, just days after the Winter Olympics, a massive American flag stretched across Sections 117 and 118. Fans carefully moved the enormous Old Glory across the crowd, making sure it never touched the ground. The teams’ national anthems followed, along with tributes to military members and community service workers. Scenes like this illustrate the communal atmosphere that hockey arenas often cultivate.

Then the puck dropped.

Lightning forward Gage Goncalves dove head first into the crease chasing a scoring opportunity. He got the point. As well as a fist-fight out of the play. Moments like that capture why hockey’s audience continues to grow.

Hockey fans already know how empowering and entertaining allure of their sport. There just hasn’t been the window of opportunity for the NHL to compete with the NFL. Historically, the NHL lacks the same scale of exposure as the NFL.

Indisputable facts: the numbers still favor football by a wide margin. The marketing has greater reach, and the stadiums have behemoth seating capacity. The professional football audience is larger ranging 40% to 60% percent. These numbers illustrate the enormous structural advantage the NFL currently holds.

Nonetheless, current audience scale does not necessarily determine future cultural momentum.

The 2026 Super Bowl drew roughly 124 million viewers, compared with about 22 million for the Olympic hockey final in Milan. NFL stadiums often seat nearly 70,000 fans, while NHL arenas typically hold around 20,000. The NFL also benefits from a massive media ecosystem such as pregame shows, postgame commentary, and an entire advertising industry built around football that integrates collegiate and high school stars.

But on the qualitative analysis, the demographic profiles of NFL and NHL viewers are strikingly similar. Meanwhile, women’s hockey is rapidly expanding and highly competitive, with the United States capturing Olympic gold in 2026. That growth expands hockey’s overall audience in ways the NFL cannot easily replicate.

Even infrastructure is beginning to evolve. On February 1, 2026, the Tampa Bay Lightning hosted their first outdoor game at Raymond James Stadium, drawing 64,617 fans nearly matching NFL attendance levels. The concept of outdoor stadium series games, even in tepid to sultry climates, represents an attempt by the NHL to expand beyond traditional arena capacity. It is the first step to reach audience on par with professional football venues.

The quantitative gap cannot be ignored. But the qualitative trends cannot be dismissed either. Incrementally, it’s in hockey’s favor.

Over time, culture often drives economics. As fans seek experiences that feel authentic and participatory, money and attention may gradually shift. The NFL remains a powerful American institution, and a newer internationally footprint. But the emotional center of American sports culture may become more contested.

Yes, people will continue to buy NFL tickets, play the app game, and buy some merch. However, the NFL is losing that “loving feeling”. People will head towards other games during the same season, that offer the spirit, once felt watching the NFL.

If that shift continues, the NHL will be well positioned to compete. If audiences continue prioritizing authenticity, accessibility, and fast-paced play, the NHL could gradually close the cultural gap with the NFL.

If I had millions to dump into a professional sports club, it would be with a hockey team.

~E

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Strategic Reorientation and Cultural Imperatives

While the grand pivot to the Pacific has been curtailed by the Israeli-Iranian tête-à-missile, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with the leaders of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in Astana for the second China-Central Asia Summit, roughly two weeks after the Shangri-La Dialogue. The Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China are vying for political influence and economic control in Central Asia, furthering the necessity of a culturally adept, transnational Indo-Pacific strategy for NATO.

Hybrid warfare presents a dilemma of principles for NATO, as the Alliance must defend security interests in regions where cultural and economic ties increasingly align with authoritarian powers within collectivist societies. Symbols like Labubu, K-pop, and Mr. Gudetama Egg reflect the semiotic terrain of modern conflict, where identity, connectivity, and loyalty are shaped by cultural consumption within a collectivist mindset. To remain credible in the Indo-Pacific, NATO must recalibrate its strategy to account for the powerful, often contradictory, role of culture and technology in shaping global alignment.

At the core of this strategic challenge lies a paradox: many Asian and Indo-Pacific nations seek defense and deterrence from NATO Allies and Partners, while at the same time deepening their reliance on Chinese communications infrastructure, software, robotics, Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, and economic investment. This competing imperative threatens to undermine the very security offered by the Alliance, and President Macron’s address highlights these strategic challenges.

President Macron’s keynote address at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on May 30th inadvertently surfaces the influence of culture on NATO’s security and defense strategy. He challenged NATO, its Pacific partners, and China, while acknowledging his prior misjudgment that NATO’s role was limited to European affairs. President Macron sharply called attention to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the humanitarian impact on Gaza, and Iran’s nuclear enrichment program as deeply connected to China’s economic investments across Europe, and Asia.

President Macron’s address illuminates the multifaceted challenges of aligning defense strategy with the complex realities of the Indo-Pacific, where culture, economics, and politics intertwine. President Macron’s highlighted two key concepts, strategic autonomy and strategic ambiguity, that are particularly complex in the Indo-Pacific context. Within these overarching topics, he touched on the roles of autonomy, ambiguity, and credibility in security and defense.

This complex geopolitical and cultural landscape sets the stage for President Macron’s recent remarks, which are vital to NATO’s evolving role. It is difficult to demand Asian partner nations to halt purchases of lower-cost Chinese products or reject Chinese investment, especially under state-backed initiatives like Made in China 2025. Achieving economic independence will remain a challenge for several Asian nations unless U.S. and European governments subsidize tech infrastructure and communication-linked commodities.

Popular Chinese apps and digital platforms have become embedded in daily life, even though privacy is forfeited. Chinese products are not only more affordable but are often attractive, innovative, and efficient, despite quality concerns. However, this call for autonomy encounters significant friction in the Indo-Pacific, where collectivist cultural values shape national priorities differently than in the West, complicating efforts to reduce dependency on Chinese technology and investment.

Even Europe itself is affected by the affordable trend of Chinese goods, with IoT technologies such as BYD’s small electric vehicle, localized culturally from Seagull to Dolphin Surf, at a relatively cheap price point. To reduce dependence on China, European and Asian nations would need more affordable options. Otherwise, security partnerships with NATO could remain compromised by infrastructure built and maintained by Chinese companies. Confronting these layered challenges, NATO faces a critical moment in redefining its strategy for the Indo-Pacific.

President Macron’s artful argument, highlighting France’s use of nuclear power, underscored that national control over energy resources is essential for sovereignty. This concept may resonate with Western audiences that value individualism but is less compelling for collectivist-oriented Asian nations. This divergence creates normative friction that must be addressed through gray-zone tactics, strategic empathy by stepping into a collectivist worldview, long-term investment, and trust-building measures to endure the uncertainty presented by hybrid warfare.

Strategic ambiguity, another pillar of President Macron’s remarks, involves withholding clear red lines to maintain uncertainty with adversaries. The first rule of cards: never show your full hand. For instance, he pointed to Germany and the U.K.’s 2024 refusal to send troops to Ukraine. While meant to de-escalate nuclear tensions, this move inadvertently assured Moscow that Ukraine would not receive soldiers as military aid. President Macron’s reference to this moment, based on his suggestion to keep it as a potential move, raises doubts about NATO’s credibility and strategic wargaming if it is unwilling to use force even to defend Europe.

President Macron’s recognizes that ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Israel, and Yemen are all linked to Asia. From France’s vantage point, this marks a shift in NATO’s self-conception. His statement that NATO should have a presence in Asia could mark a major evolution in strategic thinking.

Perhaps this shift in interpreting hybrid warfare will garner a greater appreciation for the influence of culture on policy and strategy. NATO should embrace the growing impact of cultural phenomena, from viral memes to entertainment trends, on identity and allegiance in ways that affect security dynamics. NATO’s ability to operationalize such popular culture dynamics as part of its Indo-Pacific security strategy can strengthen its deterrence posture.

In this context, popular culture and collective mentality have security implications, such as the strength of India’s relationship with Russia or Russia’s relationship with China. From a Russian model’s iconic rise for Sang-culture in China to reruns of Bollywood on Russian TV—these are not trivial cultural trends.

Labubu, a Chinese cultural phenomenon, symbolizes the global popularity of Chinese cult culture in the form of a quirky, troll-like doll with humorously good intentions gone awry. Meanwhile, Chinese consumers enthusiastically embrace Japanese Mr. Gudetama Egg emojis to express negative emotions often censored by China’s ubiquitous surveillance techniques.

The cultural trend of K-pop thrives across the U.K., U.S., Asia, and the Pacific. In 2025, a young North Korean defector, Yu Hyuk, will even appear as part of 1Verse stateside. South Korean TV shows like Squid Games are popular in China, as well as in the U.S. and Europe. Such examples of cultural diffusion illustrate how entertainment and identity play an integral role in shaping public opinion and Alliance cohesion.

While the world remains divided by territorial borders, today’s communication flows across abstract digital codes shaped by foreign languages, shared cultures, and virtual interaction. Globalization, the internet, and artificial intelligence (AI) accelerate these cultural linkages, generating a secondary cultural map that should inform strategic doctrine.

In Asia, hybrid warfare demands a modernized approach because the battlespace is no longer just physical, but fundamentally conceptual and cross-cultural. The divergence in governance principles and acts of state subversion require creative thinking in defense. This is where cultural intelligence comes into play.

The ideological foundations of the Communist Triad (Russia, North Korea, and China) tap into the collectivist mindset shared by many Asian, Central Asian, and Pacific Islander cultures. In contrast, the NATO Allies are largely individualistic, which complicates attempts to form deeper strategic alignment in the Indo-Pacific. This cultural divergence must be addressed to broadly deter conflict with China. These cultural forces underpin broader ideological frameworks that further complicate NATO’s efforts.

President Macron vocally pressured China to rein in North Korea’s nuclear threat. Furthermore, he called on China to leverage its relationships with both North Korea and Russia to disengage from military cooperation in Ukraine. But to do so, China would have to reduce its illicit trade with North Korea and jeopardize its energy cooperation with Russia—moves that could strain the bond binding the Communist Triad. Certainly, it would derail financial revenue streams and compromise energy security, making those unlikely compromises.

For countries threatened by North Korean missile launches, Russian aggression, or disadvantaged by the Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese products and services remain attractive to the people despite long-term political concerns. When combined with streamlined Chinese-run services and platforms, these trends shape cultural and social dynamics that influence partner nations’ security behavior. This paradox plays out in the everyday lives of Indo-Pacific nations, where economic realities often clash with security concerns.

The collectivist mentality for coexistence among many Asian cultures enables the political ideological resonation with propaganda from Russian, North Korean, and Chinese governments. Moreover, the transnational cultural and ethnic bonds connecting Eurasians, Pacific Islanders, and Asian nations illuminate the necessity for a culturally attuned messaging component to a NATO Indo-Pacific security-defense strategy. This will enhance NATO’s efforts to deter conflict with China while also encouraging partner relationships, despite the paradoxical entanglements in the region.

The Path Forward for NATO

NATO was established for European defense and deterrence, but globalization and hybrid warfare have blurred the line between European and Indo-Pacific security. France, with its overseas territories in Asia, exemplifies this shift. As President Macron urged, European nations must take responsibility for their own defense and stop relying so heavily on China.

Strategic ambiguity is especially valuable in the Indo-Pacific, where cultural and ideological differences complicate diplomatic and economic efforts by NATO nations. Russia, China, and North Korea share values deeper than politics, rooted in ethnic and cultural foundations that reinforce collectivist governance. Even as the Chinese and Russian governments leverage capitalism, their ideological roots remain intact.

Recent revelations about North Korean workers using AI to obfuscate faces to land jobs in European tech firms show how hybrid threats exploit both digital and cultural blind spots. Globalization, AI, and popular culture have collapsed old categories. NATO’s interoperability in the Indo-Pacific, especially amidst China’s military ramp-up, is imperative. Defense, culture, technology, and commerce now overlap at a rapid pace. Not necessarily through expansion, but through redefinition.

NATO must recalibrate its role in Asia, especially as cyber threats, espionage, and ideological influence expand. While some advocate for a redefined and expanded NATO mission, at minimum, the Alliance must remain faithful to its current principles of defending democracy and acknowledge that its credibility is at stake.

The security threat posed by the Communist Triad across the Pacific and Europe is clear. But crafting an effective deterrence strategy requires culturally attuned messaging, application of AI, economic alternatives, and acknowledgment of conflicting governance models. Military force and economic sanctions are effective, but addressing deeper factors of cultural identity and human connection can further NATO policy for deterrence and seek the ultimate goal to meaningfully contribute to peace and security in the Indo-Pacific.

These entanglements, where Asian nations ask for Western security while embedding Chinese technologies into their core infrastructure, make it difficult to achieve the strategic autonomy and ambiguity for which President Macron calls. Addressing this paradox will require not only military planning and economic incentives from the NATO Allies but also embracing and operationalizing cultural intelligence strategies.

NATO’s future credibility and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific may hinge on its ability to help resolve these contradictions through a strategy that is as culturally nuanced as it is militarily robust.

~E

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• The Opportunity: Ukraine has a chance to retain its territory and join NATO, but past events continue to shape the present.

• The Risk of continued instability in Europe: Russia aims to maintain instability in Ukraine and prevent its NATO membership, potentially influencing other former Soviet states.

• The Importance of NATO Membership: If Ukraine officially relinquishes the critical port peninsula of Crimea, along with the natural-gas rich regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, it needs to join NATO. Without NATO membership, and the fear of the U.S.’s military might at the ready, Russia will continue destabilizing Ukraine and installing Russian-aligned politicians.

The spirit of Pope Francis permeated his funeral, and his legacy of human-centric communication may actually facilitate negotiations for Ukrainian independence. On April 26th, 2025, it seems that a profound meeting took place between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Vatican City, surrounded by the spirit of Pope Francis and those mourning his passing.

During negotiations with Russia, Ukraine is being asked to cede substantial territory, including Lugansk, Donetsk, and the Crimean peninsula. The Crimean peninsula houses the valuable Black Sea port of Sevastopol. If President Zelenskyy officially agrees to relinquish Crimea, NATO should be included in the deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

President Zelenskyy, who has led the fight to preserve the current territory, is not the one who lost Crimea, Donetsk, or Lugansk. The former Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, ceded the crucial seaport and eastern regions filled with natural gas to Russian forces. It’s plausible that Mr. Yanukovych formally agreed to allow Russia to take Crimea in exchange for political protection through the use of Russian military force in 2014. Alternatively, it’s more likely Mr. Yanukovych tacitly agreed to a passive resistance as part of the deal at the Kremlin. As the Latin phrase goes, “qui tacet consentire videtur.” Silence is consent.

On February 20th, 2014, under the cover of night, the first Russian occupation of Crimea began. Two days later, President Yanukovych was ousted from office by a parliamentary vote and abruptly fled Kiev to Kharkiv amidst intense protests at Maidan. Mr. Yanukovych made a brief appearance in Crimea before mysteriously arriving in Moscow around February 22nd, 2014.

Despite being forced from office due to corruption scandals and the aftermath of the Orange Revolution, Mr. Yanukovych signed a letter requesting military assistance from Russia to stabilize the country from the “chaos and anarchy” allegedly caused by the “West.” These events exposed the extent to which the Russian government had underlying control over Ukrainian politics and natural resources.

Now in 2025, the political dynamics have changed dramatically, presenting an opportunity for Ukraine to retain its currently held territory and to join NATO. However, it is essential to set aside the past, influenced by the different balances of power at the time, for a better future. Perhaps, the American mentality that to move forward, move on hits too soon for Ukrainians, and definitely a mentality too western for the Russian government. Nevertheless, the memories of the past, particularly in the east, linger as an active part of the present.

For anyone who has listened to Vladimir Putin’s interviews or monologues at the Duma from his party members, they often speak to the significance of Nikita Khrushchev’s 1954 decision to place Crimea under the Soviet satellite state of Ukraine. Russian officials also like to give history lessons to the international community, referencing the 1990 agreement with Mikhail Gorbachev against “NATO expansion”. These historical events serve as a reminder of the enduring impact of past actions and decisions.

The pivotal question is whether President Putin bartered for Crimea, to readdress a past Russian strategic misstep, in exchange for Russian special forces to suppress the Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity. Equally important, is whether Viktor Yanukovych, either in writing or verbally, agreed to allow the Russian military, along with the Chechen Republic’s special police forces, to seize Crimea without significant resistance or defenses.

Despite his frequent bickering with Russia over gas prices and EU membership, Viktor Yanukovych ultimately aligned himself with Russia. In 2014, Mr. Yanukovych brokered a deal with Russia to save his presidency, which ultimately resulted in not only his definitive removal from office but Ukraine losing nearly one-third of its territory, people, and natural resources.

Numerous legal experts have argued that Russia’s actions under Mr. Yanukovych’s request for Russian military aid was illegal and against international law. Essentially, the legal argument is that Viktor Yanukovych’s status as an ousted president tainted by corruption, no longer officially represented Ukrainian interests at the time. Even though Mr. Yanukovych now publicly regrets requesting Russian military assistance, it’s too late to undo the consequences.

Today, this problem plagues Mr. Zelenskyy’s position in ceasefire negotiations as ceding Crimea sets a potentially perilous precedent. The crux of the matter currently derailing Ukraine’s future lies in territorial disputes, which hinders nations from joining NATO due to stipulations in Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The Russian government understands the influence of Article 10 on membership and obstructs former Soviet-era satellite states from progressing toward a EU and NATO future.

Skeptics argue that the terms of the agreement are irrelevant; Russia will never relinquish control over Ukraine. The Russian government will persist in using military and intelligence resources to maintain instability in Ukraine to prevent NATO membership, just as Russia did with the Georgian Republic. This fear influences the decisions of other nations in the Caucasus region and Central Asia.

If President Zelenskyy officially relinquishes Crimea, then the Ukrainian people and Europe need to witness a resounding and reassuring victory. This victory should manifest in NATO membership, supported by the United States and the military might it entails.

Without this triumph, there’s no imminent danger halting the Russian Federation’s destabilization efforts in Ukraine. Without the threat of military repercussions from the United States and other NATO Allies, the Russian military will persist in its subversive actions. Similarly, the Ukrainian military will continue fighting until the very end.

If fear is a key component of power and respect is a reflection, then what safeguards prevent Russia from destabilizing Ukraine without the support of NATO’s combat capabilities? Regardless of the territories Russia retains in the ceasefire deal, Russia will persist in undermining the Ukrainian government to meet long-term objectives. Chiefly, the Russian government aims to install Russian-aligned Ukrainian politicians in the government to maintain influence over Ukraine’s decisions regarding natural resources, and political and military positions.

To prevent this, if Ukraine is expected to cede Crimea, as well as Lugansk and Donetsk, Ukraine needs to secure a NATO membership.

~E

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Even for the U.S. Intelligence and Defense Community, Pope Francis’ culturally attuned communication style serves as an exemplary model, regardless of one’s religious affiliation. Given the intricate dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region, particularly the Russia-North Korea-China triangle, it behooves the interests of the United States to strengthen its diplomatic and defense partnerships with Indonesia. The Republic of Indonesia’s strategic move to join BRICS in January 2025 could not only complicate hybrid warfare in the Indo-Pacific but also contribute to the global mission to counter terrorism.

The Russian government, through its mercenary arm '“Africa Corps”, has already been implicated in human trafficking. Russian-led posts in Libya are used to funnel ethnically diverse groups from Southeast Asia and Syria into Europe, particularly noticeable in Italy. The Muslim populations of Asia, including India, are within the reach of groups like ISIS, its affiliate ISIS-K, and al-Qaeda. ISIS and Al-Qaeda continue to pose threats to Syria’s potential new state while directing its recruits towards African nations such as Somalia.

Consequently, there will be a subsequent wave in terrorist recruitment, which will necessitate a higher demand from the Combatant Commands and Partner Nations on U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) for support. A long-term and mutually beneficial U.S.-Indonesia relationship remains essential for international security. While countries like Malaysia have successfully addressed ISIS recruitment through community-oriented measures, the Muslim communities in Southeast Asia remain vulnerable to jihadist-themed preaching and propaganda.

This post began with deep admiration for Pope Francis’ profound respect for people and their cultures. His approach to global connectivity exemplifies the value of human-centric communication, even in the context of international security. Pope Francis’ legacy demonstrates that even amidst contentious and bitter wars and battles, people’s hearts and minds remain open.

~E

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• U.S. Strategy Focus: Expand beyond Ukraine to address threats from Russia and China as a unified front in Central Asia.

• Central Asia Engagement: Substantial economic investment and heightened military presence to pressure Russia and indirectly influence China.

• Cultural Ties in Communication Strategy: A collective regional identity approach is crucial for garnering support, avoiding ethnocentric approaches.

• Technological Advantage: Global social media and machine translation advancements can enhance the success of an Eurasian strategy.

By directing U.S. business investment and bolstering U.S. military forces in Central Asia, the Russian Federation will be compelled to divert its attention between its western and eastern borders. Moreover, a more prominent U.S. presence in the region will disrupt the People’s Republic of China’s expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative, potentially prompting the Chinese government to exert pressure on the Russian government to reconsider its rigid stance on U.S. ceasefire proposals to end the war in Ukraine. In tandem with this, the proposed imposition of high tariffs on Russian oil exports, which could extend to lumber and diamonds, as well as Chinese exports, will contribute to the resolution of stabilizing Ukraine.

Several European nations are reevaluating their defense capabilities in 2025, acknowledging the resolve of Vladimir Putin and his party United Russia to maintain control over Ukraine. For Russia, it is also a matter of potentially losing Belarus and Moldova to the so-called “NATO Expansion”, which in Russian terms is a violation of Cold War-era agreements. Due to the Kremlin’s commitment to maintain these grandfathered conditions, it is crucial for European nations to devise financial solutions to bolster their defense. In the context of Ukraine, President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people urgently require European defense support.

While the U.S. plays a crucial role in Ukraine’s independence and stability against Russian aggression, the American strategy for economic prosperity and defense posture should expand to address the growing threats posed by Russia and China as one. A significant part of the Eurasian strategy should evolve beyond consultations and relationship development towards business development, and enhanced defense training, and cooperation in Central Asian states like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. A cooperation for which these nations already recognize the value through a recent border agreement in pursuit of their individual prosperity from Russia’s dominion.

Russian President Putin is fully committed to maintaining a chronically weakened Ukrainian state that excludes President Zelenskyy, which is undoubtedly an unpublished aspect of Russia’s “unaddressed” issues in ceasefire disagreements. While there are various tactics to leverage Russia to make concessions, such as imposing harsh sanctions on oil, a shift in strategy concerning Eurasia is essential.

Principally, a substantial economic investment by the U.S. and NATO Allies in Central Asia, coupled with a heightened military presence, would not only directly pressure Russia on its territory but also indirectly pressure Russia through China. A visible and substantial presence in Central Asia would hinder China’s autonomy in its Belt and Road Initiative, or at a minimum retain a U.S. physical presence in the development of the “new Silk Road”. This strategy would compel Russia to curtail its military buildup in the west and simultaneously assist the U.S. in pressuring China to de-escalate tensions with Russia.

It is crucial to acknowledge a cultural element that cannot be ignored: the Eurasian ties in Central Asia to Turkic culture, which gives Turkey a role to play as a member of NATO, assuming Turkey maintains its internal stability. There is the cultural heritage of the Russian language and bilingualism among peoples of Central Asian due to the former Soviet Union. While several Central Asian nations have moved toward cultural sovereignty from Russia, there is still a popular culture link to Russia and the Russian people as well as China.

The communication aspect of the Eurasian trade and defense strategy for Central Asia must be grounded in the collective identity specific to the region. By adopting this approach, it is more likely to garner support from these nations, and its people, rather than resorting to outdated ethnocentric approaches that inadvertently fuel confrontational nationalism in the region. A positive aspect to the modern era of technology, which helps address the ambitions of such a strategy, are global social media use and the advancement of machine translation, which will further the success of a reshaped U.S. Eurasian strategy.

The nuanced level of AI-driven translation at scale, necessitated for such an ambitious Eurasian trade, defense, and communication strategy, is in the realm of the possible, in part owing to the advancement of Large Language Modeling. There is an opportunity to leverage technology to further the success of an Eurasian approach to Russia, which was missing in the initial and middle stages of the Ukrainian War of Independence. A lesson now learned, which can be repositioned toward Central Asia to benefit not only Ukraine, but the U.S.’s interests in Eurasia and Asia.

~E

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• Brain Drain Concerns: The current situation could risk a “brain drain” as educated Turkish nationals, studying abroad, may choose not to return to Turkey due to perceived social and political oppression.

• External Instability: Turkey’s proximity to Syria and the presence of jihadist remnants within its borders make it vulnerable to further instability, potentially resembling Syria’s civil war era.

• Implications for Syria: The new interim Syrian government needs a stable Turkey to lean on as it implements a constitutional government and attempts to remove jihadist movements.

• Turkey’s Political Trajectory: Turkey is at risk of becoming a politically unstable democracy where religion holds significant influence over governance.

• Impact on NATO: Turkey’s shifting perspective on democracy and religion, coupled with its relationships with nations like Russia and Iran, could lead to conflicts with NATO principles and member states.

• U.S. and NATO’s Response: The U.S. and NATO must reassess their relationship with Turkey and consider diplomatic measures to address internal strife and the impact of the Syrian Civil War.

The Republic of Turkey’s sociocultural instability, exacerbated by the fragile Syrian coalition’s constitution, comes at a critical moment for the Alliance. Last Wednesday’s political imprisonment of prominent presidential contender Ekrem İmamoğlu from the CHP party has compelled supporters to protest government corruption, surpassing the scale and intensity of the Gezi Park Protests in 2013 as seen on platforms like X. The current protest demographic remains largely unchanged, comprising university students, professors, and the Westward-facing social sector of Turkish society. But the markers of communist flags may appear as the protests continue as in the case with Gezi Park.

The protestors and some Turkish citizens accuse the Erdoğan government of corruption and authoritarianism, a claim furthered by jailed Ekrem İmamoğlu whose popularity soared over the AKP candidate for Istanbul’s 2024 mayoral election. The imprisonment of Istanbul’s mayor is being viewed as an attempt to establish a dictatorship. The thrust of protests and violence swept throughout Turkey over the last week, most prominently in Istanbul and Ankara.

In response, the Erdoğan government labeled the protesters as “terrorists”, still detaining İmamoğlu on charges of corruption and graft with ties to the PKK. Over the past few days, the Turkish government has been arresting protesters across the country in droves. As a result, over the next 2-5 years, Turkey is likely to experience a “brain drain effect” due to perceived or actual social and political oppression.

Globally, Turkish nationals are enrolled in advanced university programs, including the United States, Europe, and Asian nations like Japan. Typically, graduates return home to work in Turkey, but the current situation with tens of thousands of protests nationwide, nearly two-thirds according to AFP, could worsen if Mr. İmamoğlu remains imprisoned. Instead of returning to Turkey, these educated classes, and their families may choose to leave Turkey permanently.

While other nations such as the U.S. and France will gain significantly from the intellectual, pro-democracy capital represented by expatrioted Turkish society, it will have a negative impact on NATO relationships. Although Turkey will retain an educated and hardworking society, their perspective and attitude toward the roles of democracy and religion will be fundamentally different. This fundamental difference will likely run in conflict with NATO principles, and many NATO Members.

Overtime, the Turkish representatives sent to NATO may have an understanding, representing the conservative AKP party, in which the separation of religion and governance is not the prevailing view. Additionally, the conservative party places a high value on relationships with nations that conflict with the NATO Allies, including Russia, Iran, and the proxy-terrorist organizations destabilizing Yemen, Palestine, and Israel.

Moreover, Turkey’s potential brain drain will lead to a disconcerting population gap, which extremist and terrorist organizations may exploit. Turkey is highly vulnerable to further deterioration, especially due to its proximity to Syria. The remnants of jihadists and terrorist organizations still lurk in Turkish rural communities, awaiting return to Syria. Turkey is also home to 3.47 million asylum seekers, primarily from Syria, but the numbers include displaced persons from Central Asia, Russia, Iran, and the Levant Region. At the worst trajectory in the next ten years, Turkey may resemble an early civil war-era Syria circa 2010.

The prospects of stable governance in Syria remain uncertain, stemming from the formation of multiple ideologically diverse, such as the political side of the Syrian Defense Forces, and incompatible coalitions. To further complicate matters, the Assad regime continues to reach for control over certain areas of Syria. Furthermore, the jihadist communities in Turkey, parts of Africa, and in the Levant, which retreated during Operation Inherent Resolve, eagerly anticipate returning to Syria.

These issues raise questions about NATO’s position and Turkey’s role in its future. If the Turkish government continues its current course, Turkey will become a highly unhinged nation where governance is not on an equal footing with religion. At the same time, Syria is attempting to form a constitutional government with quasi-jihadist ideals, transitioning from a dictatorship and civil war. The new Syrian government, and its interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa need a stable Turkey on which to lean.

Considering these circumstances, the United States and NATO must revise their understanding of Turkey’s intricately complex sociocultural dynamics due to internal strife and the impact of the Syrian Civil War. There is an opportune moment to leverage available diplomatic tools to encourage the Turkish government to release Ekrem İmamoğlu for enhanced international security. Otherwise, the United States and NATO Allies must reevaluate their relationship with the Republic of Turkey.

~E

Moreover, the potential consequences for local women are particularly concerning, as the combination of propaganda and social pressures could lead to the implementation of these informal restrictions as law. Ultimately, this could have a profound impact on Syrian culture, potentially redirecting the security landscape in a fragmented direction.

I highly recommend watching this report by France24 (Only available in French at the moment but the video footage is worth seeing.)

France24 article in English on the 5 year constitution

Hijab trends in Syria, and the wave of incoming jihadist propaganda, are topics I will be keeping an eye on.

~E

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To strengthen its military efforts and counter Russian hybrid warfare, I suggest in this article that Ukraine shift towards a more inclusive strategy that embraces a collective Eurasian identity. This modern approach would unify its diverse population, broaden its recruitment base, and foster greater domestic and international support, countering Russian narratives and enhancing Ukraine's resilience in its fight for independence and sovereignty. By shifting its messaging strategy towards the collective Eurasian identity of former Soviet satellite nations, Ukraine has the potential to outmaneuver Russia's military ramp efforts and global terrorism accusations.

Reframing Ukraine's Strategic Messaging to Strengthen Military Recruitment and Counter Russian Hybrid Warfare

A pressing and complex issue that hampers Ukraine's battlefield success is attrition in the military. This, coupled with the need for equipment and weapons from NATO nations to secure its independence from the Russian Federation's incursions, underscores the urgency of the situation. Ukraine needs to reevaluate its global strategic messaging regarding culture and language to counter Russia's overall hybrid war fighting capacity. 

Background: Russia's Annexation of Crimea and Support for Separatists

In 2014, Russia challenged Ukraine’s sovereignty by annexing Crimea. This was followed by the Russian government’s support for separatist movements in the border regions of Donetsk and Lugansk. Russian President Vladimir Putin defended Russia's actions to protect its border security based on Russo-Slavic culture. As a result, Ukraine's leadership was confronted with a significant cultural dilemma.

At this time, the Ukrainian government was defending its borders, grappling with internal political turmoil, and seeking international support for aid. President Putin's narrative had a profound impact on Ukraine's messaging strategy. In response, Ukraine focused its esprit de guerre on an ethnocentric Ukrainian messaging campaign that aimed to differentiate its cultural identity.

Impact of Language Policy Changes on Recruitment Pools

While initially effective, the focus on Ukrainian identity narrowed the recruitment pool, ultimately complicating its current military efforts. Ukraine has ethnic diversity, with an estimated one-third of its domestic population a mix of Muslims, Caucasians, Jews, Belarusians, Hungarians, Russians, and Tatars. For the sizable minority who actively speak Russian, Ukraine's sovereignty means more than simply defending Ukrainian culture. This public support is necessary for Ukraine to win the war.

Other under-leveraged factors in Ukraine's messaging strategy are the cultural legacies of the Soviet era. When the Ukrainian government changed the national language to Ukrainian in 2019, polling showed complex reactions from citizens. Even in Lugansk, some ethnic Russians empathized with Ukraine's right to redefine the national language. However, other citizens regarded the government's decision as dismissive of their ancestral lineages and daily life. At the time, president elect Volodymyr Zelenskyy cautioned against the ruling, urging the need to “…adapt laws and decisions that consolidate society, and not vice-versa”.

The issue of Ukraine's language policy becomes increasingly divisive as the government takes steps to eliminate Russian as a de facto language, impacting these ethnic minorities. The Ukrainian government pressed local businesses to request customers speak Ukrainian first rather than Russian. Then, Ukrainian officials attempted to offset social irritations over the reforms by offering free Ukrainian classes. The expectation that citizens learn Ukrainian after speaking Russian for decades has unintended consequences that create social instability in the community.

As a present-day reality, Russian remains a common language among most people from the former Soviet satellite states. There are Ukrainians themselves who are either part Russian, have Russian family members, or were raised in a Russian language environment. The full support of the culturally Russian-identifying segment of Ukrainian society, with their potential as soldiers, resistance fighters, and community builders, is not just beneficial but absolutely essential. 

Whatever the Ukrainian government's intent, the global message seems to some that Ukraine is fighting for a future specific to ethnic Ukrainians. Effectively, this perception alienates and isolates portions of Ukrainian society near and abroad. It will serve Ukraine's war effort to connect more fundamentally, based on common goals, to the broader Russian-speaking community.

Given the impact of AI on communication technologies and machine translation, people are connecting globally on shared commonalities. Consequently, it makes highly ethnocentric and nationalistic war fighting messaging campaigns seem outdated in today’s international environment. By Ukraine shifting its messaging strategy towards an outward-facing concept like collective identity, its fight for independence will have the opportunity to resonate more broadly to communities that Ukraine needs.  

Collective Identity vs. Ethnocentric Narratives

The Russian language is necessary to evolve Ukraine’s messaging campaign. On a primordial level, language is a connective cultural tissue that binds people. In Soviet popular culture, the films, shows, music, literature, and jokes were constructed in the Russian language. Despite any loathing for having to use Russian by native peoples, this interconnectedness is still present in modern popular culture. Thus, a societal stigma now ferments, causing a negative perception of the Russian language and culture.

The Ukrainian government's aspiration to preserve and promote its native language and culture is a commendable goal —nonetheless, a cultural reform to integrate socially after the war is won. Drawing from the successful  strategies of the Roman Emperor Constantine and founder of the Turkish Republic Kemal Mustafa Atatürk illustrate this point.

Respectively, the immense cultural reforms involving religion, mentality, and language of the Christian Roman Empire and the secular Turkish Republic occurred postwar. In reverse order, this approach is akin to the state demanding people fight for a future to which they do not belong. Instead, to expand the audience for Ukraine's efforts, inclusivity of the global Russian-speaking community and Eurasian identity should be key themes.

Despite the complexities, there is a palpable desire for freedom from Russia's prerogatives across Eurasia. A prospect that may entice other nations to risk a move against Russia by offering or passively allowing money, resources, and soldiers to arrive in Ukraine. In recent history, successful and unsuccessful bids for post-Soviet state independence illustrate the benefits of collective identity.

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania effectively leveraged collective identity to unite against the Soviet invasion between (1986-1991). Despite the threat, all three nations maintained their separate cultural identities but found common ground in the desire for autonomous governance. The bonds of the Singing Revolution were so strong that the trio forced the impending Soviet army to back down.

Contrarily, the Chechen Wars (1991-2000) show a failed, ethnocentric campaign for independence. The Chechens of this time concentrated uniquely on preserving Chechen-Ingush culture. Slowly, the Russian government divided the previously tightly knit Chechen population.

Today, roughly half the Chechen community remains under political asylum, refusing to return permanently to Russia. The Chechen wars are still a touchy subject because, after taking 20 years to secure the North Caucasus, Russia nearly lost its power in Eurasia. Ultimately, Russia’s leadership recognized its odds and risked state collapse to win.

The fate of the first Chechen Republic of Ichkeria (1994-1996) foreshadows Ukraine's future at its current trajectory. In the early 1990s, President Herbert W. Bush's administration supported Chechnya’s fight for an independent democratic state. Technically, Ichkeria won the first war for autonomy led by the former Soviet Air Force General Dzhokhar Dudayev. Yet, the warfighting skills of the Vainakh could not compete with Russian subterfuge, cluster bombs, and power of numbers in drafts.

By the second Chechen war, Ichkeria's forces resorted to criminal and terrorist organizations for weapons and recruitment. Once discovering evidence, Russia demonstrated to the international community that Chechnya’s soldiers were bandits and jihadists —the counterparts to al-Qaeda's 1991 Twin Towers bombing and the infamy of September 11th, 2001. Over time, the Chechens' popularity as freedom fighters and victims of Russian tyranny devolved into Islamic extremism and terrorism. 

Russia’s “denazification” narrative in Ukraine mirrors the eradication policies of “Wahhabism” early in the Chechen Wars. Already, President Putin is working to establish this strategic narrative by labeling Ukraine a hotspot of neo-Nazism in Europe. Lest we ignore Russia's domestic Nazi culture, President Putin's proof is the existence of a few within Ukraine's military.

Alongside its ground battle, President Putin's strategy is to defeat Ukraine on the premise of global terrorism. However, the Russian government must show "plausible evidence" to create doubt and alter perceptions to achieve such an international political coup. Hence, the Russian Investigative Committee formally charging U.S. and NATO officials with financing terrorism as of April 2024.

Moreover, President Putin has blamed Ukraine and the Allies twice for domestic terrorism issues in Russia. The first such incident occurred on October 29th, 2023, when Mr. Putin held Ukraine and its "neighbors" accountable for a racially charged mob in Makhachkala. Although ISIS-Khorasan claimed responsibility for the tragedy at Crocus City Hall on March 22nd, 2024, Mr. Putin labeled Ukraine and the West complicit.

Russia is searching for an excuse to justify international counterterrorism operations to weaken Ukraine’s military leadership. Despite the blatant hypocrisy, Russia will present any shred of evidence to the UN to justify the further occupation of Ukraine.  More shrewdly, President Putin seeks international support from the UN Security Council and members like China, Algeria, and Ecuador because it will benefit Russia's global posture in the future.

Potential Benefits of Inclusive Messaging

As resources and ranks deplete, Ukraine may fall into Russia's counterterrorism trap. In interviews, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy maintains Ukraine's unwavering commitment to fight against Russia's territorial incursions, regardless of international aid. The consequences will be dire if the Ukrainian military fails to replenish its ranks.

Currently, the Russian army is larger than at the start of the war, as attested to by USEUCOM Commander General Cavoli. Over the past two years, Russia's significant conscription efforts have grown the army by fifteen percent. The stark reality of these numbers on the battlefield will become more apparent, as evidenced by Ukraine's recent draft and consular decisions. If the NATO Allies and Members do not send reinforcements, inevitably, the criminal networks that facilitate global terrorism will be a perilous recourse.

Ukraine, unlike the 1994 Ichkeria Republic, has the advantage of significant aid from the West, including the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Finland. However, it lacks the generational recruitment pools that the Chechen ethnic identity provided. Despite the U.S. Congress passing the 2024 Ukraine military aid package valued at $61 billion, the soldier gap remains, underscoring the unique challenges Ukraine faces in recruitment.

Russia’s official act of war against Ukraine on the historical date of February 24th, 2022, was executed under the guise of a special military operation. This key Russian narrative is relevant to Ukraine's current military attrition. In reality, the Ukrainian population and military have been suffering causalities at the hands of Russian regular and irregular forces since 2014.

The current recruitment problem is partially due to Ukraine's battles over the last decade. Nevertheless, given Russia's historical capacity to weather high and low-intensity conflict, Ukraine's military vulnerabilities were destined to surface. Shifting Ukraine's messaging campaign now to collective identity to counter the recruitment gap dovetails with recent NATO engagements.

In March 2024, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited the South Caucasus region. Concurrently, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan ended a forces agreement with Russia while motioning Armenia’s bid for EU membership. The Ukrainian leadership could capitalize on the momentum of these regional efforts for its war of independence.

Overcoming the risks of national political dynamics across Eurasia

By and large, the people of the former Soviet Union have neither love lost for Stalin nor communism. Yet, paradoxically, some feel nostalgia for the unity and predictability of Soviet times. This complex sentiment reflects a human connection between loving their identity and wanting to defeat aspects of the corrupt Russian system. For instance, BYPOL in Poland is a Russian-speaking group of former Belarusian officials attempting to dispel Moscow's influence in modern Belarus.

The relationship between the former Soviet states and Russia is a complex one. Some people of the Soviet Era cast a cynical eye on Ukraine's bid for freedom as a duel between Russia and NATO. It seems too idealistic that one of the satellites could break free from Mother Russia. The leaders of these nations restrain support due to this belief, evaluating the longevity of U.S. and Western partners’ steps to enable Ukraine. In some cases, the fear of Russia's retaliation is greater than the desire for concrete autonomy.

The role of Eurasian Identity in Russia's Alliances

Several former Soviet nations will be unlikely to provide or permit support on a governmental level. For one, Belarus hosts Russia's tactical Iskander nuclear ballistic missiles. Chechnya regularly provides special police forces to augment Russia's military campaigns. Publicly, President Putin maintains a close relationship with Belarusian President Lukashenko and Chechen President Kadyrov.

In Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan’s position is slightly complicated due to trade agreements with Russia involving China. Over the decades, Kazakhstan's leadership has shown a tendency to align with Russia. However, Kazakh Foreign Minster Tokayev pushes back on specific topics important to Russia. Chiefly nuclear weapons and non-acceptance of Donetsk and Lugansk as breakaway regions.

Culturally, Kazakhstan is transitioning its alphabet from Cyrillic to Latin, a form of social distancing from Russian culture. Other nations in the margins, such as Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, are potential audiences. In 2023, Tajik President Rahmon called it a "lack of respect," referring to President Putin's absent investment in and care of the Central Asian states. The Uzbek government also began switching the alphabet to Latin. These subtle signals may indicate Russia's declining influence in Eurasia despite shared cultural heritage.

Moldova aside, the nations of Eastern Europe, and Armenia are outspoken in their interest in affirming autonomy from Russia. Although Georgia has declared intent to join NATO, the parliament passing a recent Foreign Agents bill creates some doubt. Despite the challenges, the prospect of detangling themselves from Russia's hold on their respective domestic affairs, borders, and energy security may be enticing.

To overcome these challenging dynamics, a cohesive, inclusive narrative is critical. The commonalities of identity, including the Russian language, that intertwine the destinies of all nations across the Baltics, the Caucasus region, and Central Asia. This type of momentum, starting at the local level among opposition groups, may eventually rise to the national level over time to mitigate the otherwise bleak impending outcome for Ukraine.

After all, a win for Ukraine allows for further self-determination across Russia's satellite nations. These regions encompass the core Eurasian audiences with vested cultural and economic interests in a democratic, autonomous Ukraine with EU and NATO membership. Ukraine needs the will of these former Soviet neighbors, especially considering Russia's nuclear leverage over the NATO Allies.

In February 2024, President Putin issued a chilling nuclear threat during his national assembly address after French President Macron mentioned the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine. In Europe, the prospect of nuclear war caused public protests against the Ukrainian-Russo conflict. Swiftly, German Chancellor Scholtz clarified troops were not part of the discussion. This incident further underscores the urgent need for Ukraine to explore alternative military recruitment solutions, without necessarily relying on NATO's intervention. 

Obstacles for refining Ukraine’s messaging to collective identity

There are challenges inherent in placing Ukrainian-centric narratives second to broader issues impacting other Russian-speaking and Eurasian peoples. Firstly, the Russian government promotes collective identity among Russian-speaking Slavic peoples. Secondly, many Ukrainians also strongly support Ukrainian-centric and culturally relevant narratives that emphasize their country's independence.

The Russian government leverages the Russian language and shared Slavic heritage and history in its messaging campaign, which has seen some measure of success inside Russia and within Russian-speaking diaspora communities. Russia’s spin on the war in Ukraine resonates in certain Asian nations as a fight against the West, further illustrating the need to counter Russia’s narratives dimensionally. However, the weaknesses in Russia’s campaign of distortion and influence lies in its alienation of Mongol-Asian, Caucasian, and western-Slavic peoples who were once under Soviet control.

If Ukraine reframes the next chapter of the war as a battle for the freedom of Eurasian peoples from Russia’s corrupt influence, this message could resonate with many nations and communities beyond Russia’s borders. While this approach is not exclusive of Ukraine’s suffering, the narrative must include the struggles and plights of its neighbors to rally the support Ukraine needs. There will be resistance to accepting a narrative that shifts the perspective away from the Ukrainian people, but the right to self-governance, independent of Russia’s prerogatives, is a theme broad enough to garner substantial support to effectively and thoroughly pressure Russia.

In Summary

Given Ukraine’s asymmetric manpower and weaponry compared to Russia, Ukraine’s ability to leverage culture and language becomes a matter of existential importance. A concerted collective messaging effort, involving the European, Caucasian, and Asian fronts, is necessary to exert more pressure on Russia. This is the moment for Ukraine to fine-tune its messaging strategy, which must effectively reflect the hybrid warfare it is engaged in with Russia. The time has come for Ukraine to adopt more innovative and creative measures to bolster its war of independence.

Ukraine's path to bolstering its military recruitment and countering Russian hybrid warfare lies in strategically shifting its messaging towards a more inclusive collective Eurasian identity. Embracing the cultural and linguistic diversity within Ukraine, particularly the Russian-speaking communities, is essential to expanding its recruitment pool and strengthening internal unity. Historical examples from the Baltic states and the Chechen conflicts stress the potential benefits and risks of collective versus ethnocentric identities.

As Ukraine navigates its existential struggle against Russian aggression, it must fine-tune its messaging to resonate not just with ethnic Ukrainians but with the Russian-speaking peoples across the former Soviet satellite states. This inclusive approach can garner broader support, both domestically and internationally, and counteract Russia’s narratives of terrorism and denazification. Ultimately, a cohesive and inclusive strategic communication campaign can enhance Ukraine's resilience and fortify its efforts to secure independence and sovereignty.

The global messaging environment has evolved rapidly over the course of only ten years as a result of an increase in Internet access, dynamic social media applications, and readily available AI-empowered machine translation. This evolution in communication creates an atmosphere in which people from different countries, cultures, and backgrounds can understand one another more fundamentally as part of humanity. As a result, highly ethnocentric and nationalistic messaging campaigns that look inward lose momentum on global audiences. Thus, Ukraine’s challenges in strategic messaging require evolving with the modern times as much as combating with Russia in hybrid warfare.

~E

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Gray Truths©2024

• Impact of Hijab Bans

• Role of Cultural Analysis

• Hijab Fashion in Eurasia

• Global and Ethnically Diverse Jihadist Networks

• International and Domestic Defense

• Tajikistan's Niqab Ban

• Salafi/Wahhabi Influence

• Response in Dagestan

• Chechen Opposition

• Western Nations' Challenge

• Global Reactions to Niqab

• Impact of Niqab Bans

• Root Causes of Extremism

• Importance of Religious Freedom

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Recently, Tajikistan's ban on hijab, intended to protect cultural norms and counter Salafi trends, has highlighted the sensitivity of this issue in Muslim communities. A counter-culture social wave against the ban, as well as Dagestan’s niqab ban, has the potential to strengthen jihadi-related terrorist networks. When governments focus on the hijab as the overarching problem, it distracts from the root causes of terrorism such as corruption, poverty, and deeper socio-cultural issues. Terrorist organizations exploit these problems to activate networks. Adding religious suppression exacerbates online jihadist activity, which is a precursor to violent attacks in Eurasia, Europe, and the U.S.

Hijab Bans in Eurasia: A Catalyst for Extremist Recruitment?

On June 24, 2024, the Muslim-majority nation of Tajikistan officially banned the wearing of the hijab under the principle of protecting indigenous cultural norms. Tajikistan, which has persistent issues with jihadi-extremist ideologies, is the home nation of the five individuals involved in the Crocus City Hall ISIS-K attack in Moscow. The Tajik government’s decision restricting hijab is also related to countering extremism by suppressing modern Salafi Islamic trends.

The sub-cultures of Salafi or Wahhabi movements in Islam, which have historic roots in the Arabian Peninsula, have been gaining popularity among Eurasian Muslims. A distinctive aspect of this sub-culture is a dress code that requires women to wear loose-fitting cloaks, such as the abaya, typically in black or brown, as bright colors are considered provocative and inflammatory. While the burqa is uncommon in Salafi sub-cultures, the black face veil (niqab) is more socially accepted and even obligated by some clerics.

Nearly two weeks after the extremist attacks in Russia’s North Caucasus, Chief Mufti of Dagestan Akhmad Abdullayev announced that the region would temporarily ban the niqab. The ethnically Slavic Russian governor Sergey Melikov supports the decision, viewing the niqab as "Arab culture" and as a security risk. Keep in mind that Mr. Melikov also blamed a ‘U.S.-led Western conspiracy’ for the gunmen attacks in Makhachkala and Derbent that killed 21 people in June, as well as the Crocus City Hall ISIS-K attack killing 200.

In reaction to Tajik President Emomali Rahmon’s anti-hijab stance, Ramzan Kadyrov, the President of the Chechen Republic in the Russian Federation, condemned the ban. While the Russian court has yet to ban the niqab, Russian official Alexander Bastrykin recently argued for a national ban given the attacks in Dagestan, much to the ire of Mr. Kadyrov. The Chechen president argues that Islam and the niqab have no connection to extremism, and that extremists are fanatics, not Muslims.

Although the republic has not technically banned the niqab, Chechnya’s position on this topic is peculiar. The Chechen government forcibly advocates a style of Chechen hijab, or a loose-fitting headscarf, for women. Chechen women are not necessarily free to wear the black niqab in public without attracting police attention due to its association with Wahhabism.

The Chechen government vehemently opposes Wahhabi culture, holding it ideologically responsible for separatist movements and extremist networks. Over the last two decades, Chechen counter-terrorism police forces in conjunction with Russian KTO have effectively squeezed many extremist networks out of Chechnya, pushing them into Dagestan, Turkey, Central Asia, the U.S., and Europe. As a result, Western nations that permit religious freedoms are targeted for the societal transgressions of foreign governments.

For international counter-terrorism efforts, the challenge lies in identifying when the hijab, and which style of hijab, indicates more than cultural or religious piety. However, there is historic precedent for variations in face veiling practices across North Africa, Turkey, the Balkans, and Eurasia. It begs the question: is the issue the hijab itself, the niqab, the ideologies of the extremist groups for whom it is an emblem, or the security environments in which extremist networks thrive?

Balancing this issue is increasingly important for democratic nations in the fight against terrorism. In countries like France, Orthodox Jewish women cover themselves at the beach, but Nice's municipality banned the burqini. To Muslim communities, it becomes clear that Muslims are not treated equally, which creates a baseline for extremist recruitment. Still, the subject of hijab is not weighted equally across all Muslim communities and nations.

Iranian women are being imprisoned and dying in police custody for not wearing state-approved hijab. For instance, a Kurdish-Iranian woman received 74 lashes for refusing to cover herself in a religious cloak. Meanwhile, some Turkish women are reveling in joy after Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government lifted the hijab ban in 2013 in Turkish government and university buildings.

The hijab is a highly sensitive and powerful topic in Muslim society. Extremist groups recognize the emotional influence of this topic and feed off modern Salafi movements. Banning the hijab and its many variations strengthens extremist organizations by providing a stronger justification for their recruitment content.

If Muslim communities are disproportionately targeted due to their religion, even in nations where the dominant religion is Islam, it validates the conversations in extremist forums. These groups then argue, with evidence, that democracy and religious freedom only apply to some. Consequently, religious suppression overshadows the core problems of jihadi-related terrorism.

The more relevant points on criminality, corruption, and culture are lost in these hijab-centric discussions aimed at countering terrorism. Whether or not an extremist or terrorist is a Muslim is an omnipotent judgement, just as with Christians, Hindus, Buddhists, or Jews who commit crimes. What is clear, however, is that individuals who commit legal offenses under the rule of law that defines domestic and international terrorism, are criminals.

In nations with high levels of criminal activity and jihadi-extremist sub-cultures, there are corresponding levels of government corruption and instability. This corruption leads to a range of governance issues: economic problems, unemployment, and a lack of justice and transparency in law enforcement. Consequently, extremist activity perpetuates, accentuating instability through armed conflict, as in Dagestan’s case.

Lastly, there are deeper cultural issues wherever there is local tolerance for jihadi-extremist groups. The Malaysian community effectively demonstrated the impact of local, community-oriented projects focusing on the socio-cultural issues leading to extremist support. Conversely, Indonesia permits niqab and hijab, which hosts the largest Muslim population globally, providing some valuable lessons to learn.

By permitting and safeguarding religious freedom, and continuing to evolve and enhance counter-terrorism efforts, nations like the U.S. can mitigate divisiveness and reduce extremist propaganda. However, if extremist entities are unable to operate in their home countries due to intense policing and unresolved governance issues, terrorist attacks will occur in free nations as an expression of contempt for their native governments. Therefore, it is equally important for nations like the U.S. and other democratic-minded nations to urge other nations to permit religious freedom and address corruption.

Focusing on the hijab, which is sentimental and religiously significant to people, distracts from the root problems that extremist organizations leverage for recruitment. Since governments can only address issues like corruption and security, international counter-terrorism efforts can use cultural analysis and open-source information to enhance their effectiveness. This approach broadens situational awareness and improves the identification of indicators and warnings in a more nuanced manner.

Cultural analysis helps direct where counter-terrorism efforts should focus their energy and resources. Truly analyzing and understanding the sub-cultural details helps distinguish between physical threats and benign elements. This is especially pertinent when dealing with complex issues such as the global, ethnically diverse murky world of jihadist networks.

Unfortunately, governments weaponize the topic of hijab, affecting people in a deeply personal and complex manner. As a result, the Russian Federation and Central Asia are not the only regions that will feel the impact. Europe and the U.S. are likely to experience an increase in online jihadist activity and network growth following official bans like those in Tajikistan and Dagestan. Increased recruitment often precedes terrorist attacks.

It was an honor to publish for West Point's Cyber Defense Review on the significant role of hijab in emerging security trends. It is important to continue and highlight this conversation for the sake of international and domestic defense and security.

~E

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The Impact of Dagestan’s Social Issues on Global Security

Dagestan is imploding due to rampant poverty, corruption, and decades of inadequately addressed armed conflict. The instability of the North Caucasus, a delicate social ecosystem, sends ripples internationally, affecting diaspora communities in the Levant, Europe, and the U.S. Asylum seekers fleeing these dangerous conditions become potential audiences and recruitment pools for jihadist organizations.

The desperation of people in this region and the harsh realities of their neighborhoods fuel the will of jihadists. The Russian Federation’s recent superficial response to socio-economic conditions, even blaming the U.S. for the ISIS-Khorasan attack in Moscow, has made the situation more perilous. On June 23rd 2024, 9 men associated with ISIS killed 20 people, including an orthodox priest and set fire to a synagogue, in a series of targeted gun violence. President Putin's dismissive stance might allow the jihadist threat to remain unchecked, potentially leading to a resurgence of jihadist activity outside of Russia.

Faced with an impending decentralized ISIS resurgence, President Putin’s uncooperativeness with Europe and mistrust of the U.S. should place Western nations on heightened alert. The Russian Federation may not contain the threat, as evidenced by its statements downplaying accountability for previous incidents, and the ongoing deadlock over the war in Ukraine.

Indicators of Social Distress

During the 2024 June Presidential Academy, Mr. Putin claimed that Russia is a burgeoning place of opportunity, boasting the 4th largest economy in the world according to the World Bank. This raises the question: why is there such desolate poverty in Dagestan, where terrorist attacks mirror war zones, for a major world power and advanced nation?

Aside from news reporting, there are several social indicators suggestive that Dagestan is on the brink of implosion. This is evident in social media content shared amongst locals. (#5, #4) For instance, a woman expressed that the Krasnodar government does not care about their plight despite repeated requests for assistance, simply because they are poor. (#1)

“No one cares,” she said, pointing out that while Ukraine and Palestine receive attention, the plight of the Dagestani goes ignored. She infers problems related to poor infrastructure, water and electric shortages, which locals frequently protest to gain public attention. The background video footage of the latest series of attacks, filmed by locals, clearly shows the poverty in Derbent and Makhachkala. (#10)

Another issue is the disappearance of people in Dagestan after arrests and imprisonment, with families receiving no transparency from the courts or law enforcement. In one case, an elderly woman was affected by police over a dispute concerning the detainment of her son. (#2) Equally, there are incidents of brutality and torture by law enforcement, extending to Ossetia, Chechnya, and Kabardino-Balkeria as well.

While terrorist networks are undoubtedly problematic in Dagestan, bad governance exacerbates this enduring social epidemic. For instance, footage shows Russian counterterrorism units searching an unfinished building, with a woman’s fearful voice explaining that people never know when the police might arrive and harm them. (#3) With minimal judicial recourse, it highlights the already precarious situation.

Governance and Terrorism

The Russian-speaking jihadist community, especially from the North Caucasus, play a powerful role as the action arm for global terrorist networks. Culturally, Muslim communities originating from the Caucasus are influential across Turkey, the Middle East, and Central Asia. Caucasians, especially Chechens and Avars, garner significant respect due to their warrior cultures in many regions of the Muslim world, translating to power within jihadist networks.

The attacks on synagogues and churches on June 23rd in Derbent and Makhachkala are alarming, but the conditions for such incidents have been simmering. The breadth of the attack, including gunmen shooting at a crowded beach on the Caspian Sea, shows organization and planning. (#7) The attackers, dressed in black uniforms with carefully styled beards, show indicators of an ISIS connection. (#8) A strange emblem on one attacker’s uniform may indicate an evolving offshoot, but this is yet to be confirmed.

Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov quickly offered condolences and help, but in the past has claimed that Chechnya no longer suffers from these “terrorist issues”. The Chechen Republic uses elimination and eradication policies targeting Wahhabism, identifying it as the ideological instigator. Nevertheless, by physically eliminating the ideology the attackers now assault neighboring republics, Europe, and the Levant. Occasionally, the U.S. feels the ripple effects, as seen in the infamous case of the Tsarnaev brothers and related incidents in Florida in 2013.

Not all assailants were Dagestani; one was likely of North African origin, further indicating a larger network like ISIS. It seems that two of the attackers were ethnically Chechen, not Dagestani, based on video footage. (#8) Two of the attackers were sons of “Russia 1” party member and local official Magomed Omarov, illustrating the extent to which Dagestan’s shattered community is vulnerable to grave instability.

Chechnya’s elimination policies have killed many insurgents and terrorists, but the resulting spillover across the North Caucasus, spreading into Europe, is still alive online. A current trend has jihadist groups hiding under Islamic titles, as this one went by the name “Al-Azaim”. The dispersed and hidden structure for Russian-speaking ISIS and Al-Nusra terrorists bands is rather typical, but makes it challenging to counteract.

The local Dagestani community is aware of its problems, realizing the state is unlikely to address them. The popularity of Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) places Caucasian sportsmen in the position to highlight the region’s issues and encourage calm. Their influence on the government may be limited, except for celebrities like Khabib Nurmagomedov, but their online presence helps socially and culturally.

Soon after the attacks, members of #fightnight in Dagestan emphasized that “terrorism is faceless” and “has no nationality”. (#11) In the end, the male sports community could be a strong counterbalance to Dagestan’s social ailments and failed governance. However, the solution is not simple as one of the terrorists was Gadjimurad Kagirov, an MMA fighter.

Dagestani journalist Israfil Israfilov cited a Russian counterterrorism expert on television who recently visited Makhachkala. As Mr. Israfilov explains, the “expert” misinterpreted a woman in hijab walking with her husband as an implied threat, a misrepresentation by influential officials that conflates social tensions. Mr. Israfilov argues the stereotyping of Dagestan’s Muslim community by experts and officials is part of Russia’s counterterrorism problems.

The Russian Federation’s self-inflicted ignorance of its severe governance issues leaves Dagestan in a perpetual state of dysfunction. The refusal to clearly distinguish between the threat and the religion, between criminals and ordinary people, will continue to leave the Russian Federation—and by extension, Europe, the Levant, and the U.S.—vulnerable to cyclical ISIS-style terrorist assaults on the public.

Russian politician in Dagestan Sergey Melikov commented that the terrorist incidents, both several and diverse, involve a Western conspiracy in connection to Ukraine. While the Russian Federation awaits a formal announcement from Vladimir Putin, it can be expected that the blame will be directed at ISIS, the U.S., and Europe as it was for the Makhachkala airport rampage and Moscow Crocus City hall attack.

~E

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Social Media References (warning videos contain acts of violence)

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Symbolism in Mr. Putin's Visit to North Korea

Vladimir Putin's visit to see Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang on June 18th ended with a symbolic close moment: Kim Jong-un guided Mr. Putin into a hug, a gesture he usually avoids, showing a mix of desperation and friendliness. This interaction highlights North Korea's reliance on its relationship with Russia through a formal agreement to partner on the economy, energy, transport, and engagement for defense.

North Korea's streets are typically marked by mandatory state activities, music and empty streets except for staged tourists trips. However, citizens with rare Internet access report to journalists accounts of empty buildings, fake villages, poverty, famine, and illness. While Mr. Putin needs the missiles and leverage that Kim Jong-un has to offer, the DPRK is in rough shape.

That is why last year’s surge in Russian-language content praising North Korea caught my attention. It showcased the DPRK’s social and economic prowess as well as Kim Jong-un's communist success story and benevolence. The contrary reality of the content was an indicator that more official engagement was brewing behind closed doors.

This genre of content aims to build public support for Russian-North Korean partnerships and agreements, revealing premeditated intentions by both governments. When such engagements occur, the target audience, especially Russian-speaking people, are more likely to view them positively as a result of targeted messaging.

The Broader Implications of Russian-North Korean Engagements

The economic and trade connections between Russia, the DPRK, and the PRC are evident to some of the Russian public. Social media content, some generated by AI, portrays a mix of supportive and critical views, with positive sentiments often outweighing the negative. Despite being accustomed to propaganda, the Russian public's reaction to North Korea is not overwhelmingly skeptical, influenced by cultural and ideological ties, and the previous year’s messaging strategies on social media.

Other commentators noted the practically of the arrangement: the positive dialogue is a result of Russia’s need for North Korea’s weapons. Another subscriber commented that President Putin has body doubles, since the real one no longer exists. To which, someone else posted a meme dragging both Ukrainians and Vladimir Putin.

Thick data analysis reveals the impact of culturally-driven messaging. There are avid supporters who are proud of the extravagant North Korean reception to the Russian President. While others compliment their communist brethren as “tovarisch/товарищ”. The content referenced below relates to Russian-speaking people, but it represents broader cultural themes of Russia’s messaging strategy in Asia.

Russian Social Media Posts

Russia's Messaging Strategy in the Pacific

Some Russians view their country, leader, and themselves as fundamentally communist in mentality and Eurasian, ideological and ethnic points that shape the Russian Federation's narrative of Russia vs. the West in Asia. The Russian Federation portrays itself as a victim of Western imperialism while positioning itself as a helper to Asian nations previously assisted by the Soviet Union and Imperial Russia against Western nations. President Putin's references to U.S. and NATO measures as imperialistic resonate in Asia, justifying Russia's defense partnerships with North Korea.

Despite North Korea's limited economic value, it offers Mr. Putin leverage over the U.S. in the Pacific. Russia's relationships with China, India, and in Southeast Asia are crucial to its strategy in Asia against NATO’s support for Ukraine. The Russian President’s visit to Vietnam, where Vietnamese President To Lam referred to Vladimir Putin as comrade, signals an attempt to revive communist solidarity through initiatives in nuclear energy and academic endeavors. Public support for Russia, based on cultural history and tourism, is evident in other parts of Asia, including Thailand and India where Russia receives positive popular perceptions.

Enhancing NATO Allies’ Messaging Strategy

To counter Russia's narratives in Asia, the NATO Allies must address the cultural and ideological bonds that underpin Russia's political relationships in Asia. This involves political and public views on anti-imperialist attitudes, appreciation of Soviet-era Russian culture, Russian business and tourism, and collectivist sentiments that persist in several Asian nations. By accounting for these factors, NATO can better counteract Russia's moves to strengthen its control over Ukraine and its influence in Asia.

NATO's messaging strategy must consider the cultural nuances to counter Russia's influence more broadly in Asia. Recognizing and addressing the cultural pushback against some Western nations and the anti-imperialist narratives promoted by Russia will be crucial for success.

~E

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Russia's Ceasefire Demands: A Test for NATO's Strategy

In response to President Biden signing a ten-year security agreement with President Zelenskyy on June 13, 2024, President Putin announced Russia’s conditions for a ceasefire in Ukraine on June 14. Despite intense economic sanctions on Russia, NATO support (though Turkey is flirting with BRICS), and financial aid to Ukraine, the Russian Federation is not yet willing to concede its broader objectives in Ukraine.

From a historian’s perspective, the current Ukrainian conflict began in 2014, a period marked by the Maidan protests and the annexation of Crimea. The “special operation” announced by Russia on February 22, 2022, as the official start of the war is a misleading narrative. Consequently, President Putin outlined ceasefire conditions framed within a narrative that grant Russia more than it had at the conflict's onset.

Echoing the immortal lines of Michael Corleone in The Godfather Part II, "My offer is this: nothing", President Putin stands firm in Russia’s position. Here are key points from Mr. Putin’s address, which he presents as measures to help the people of these regions who chose to separate from Ukraine:

• Ukraine must leave the regions annexed by separatists - supported by the Russian military - in Donbas, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia

• Ukraine must drop its bid for NATO

• Reengage with the Minsk Agreements

President Zelenskyy dismissed President Putin’s conditions as “absurd.” The ceasefire terms offer little for Ukraine’s sovereignty, reclamation of territory, and political aims for NATO and EU membership. Based on Mr. Zelenskyy’s comments, it is unlikely Ukraine will accept Russia’s demands, and vice versa.

It does not seem as though President Putin currently needs Russian forces to leave Ukraine to alleviate the effect of sanctions. The Russian economy is leveraging its customers in Asia, India, and the Middle East, along with its domestic arms manufacturing, to replace losses and repurposed frozen assets from the U.S. and EU. Moreover, Sergey Lavrov is courting Venezuela for nuclear energy partnership. In light of the burgeoning conflict with Guyana, Venezuela may become an energy trade partner for Russia, showing President Putin’s resistance to let Ukraine go and persistence to seek alternatives to sanctions.

On June 13, President Putin spoke to Russian military members at an event titled A Time of Heroes at the Graduate School for Public Administration. He highlighted recent World Bank data, which adjusted Russia’s economic position above that of Japan. It makes the Russian economy the fourth largest in the world in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). Aside from an odd tangent about the proverbial mama, President Putin emphasized Russia’s strength and energy to overcome challenges and seize opportunities.

Russia’s GDP still ranks eighth globally despite the PPP evaluation, reflecting a comparative adjustment, and does not account for Russia’s other economic shortcomings. Over time, Russia’s shadow economy, trade dependencies with the EU, and natural resource-dependent economy may work in Ukraine’s favor. The combination of economic sanctions, isolation from Europe, and emerging pressures on China will eventually strain Russia’s relationships and economy, but it may not be in time to help Ukraine.

The short-term question is whether Ukraine’s military can maintain the current stalemate while Russia perseveres itself economically. To force Russia’s hand, NATO Allies need a broader strategic approach targeting Russia’s other sources of power across Eurasia. In addition to current economic efforts, NATO Allies should increase pressure on Russia economically, politically, socially, and militarily through the Caucasus Region and Central Asia.

Otherwise, the Allies are fighting for Ukraine on Russia’s clock, which has some time left.

~E

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Preserving Culture Through Translation: The Linguist’s Modern Role

When I studied under Dr. Pete Smith at the University of Texas at Arlington, he taught us that machine translation (MT) is the future. Dr. Smith emphasized that as linguists, we need to incorporate technology into our work to stay professionally competitive. Ten years later, I have seen statistical MT and neural networks make incredible strides in sentiment analysis, accuracy in transliteration, and multilingual dialogue translation.

Once upon a time, I was a subtitle contributor for Amara, a collective project that provides interpretation and translation services in foreign language for the likes of TedTalks. Now, Ted is demoing multi-lingual presentations, with the collaboration of human translators, interpreters, and AI, which imitate foreign language competency. Dr. Smith said it would happen; just a matter of time.

In one light, MT removes the grunt work of translation and interpretation, which I appreciate. Advancements in neural networks will continue to automate aspects of the workload for professional linguists. I am good with it. It gives me time and energy to focus on the linguist’s true work: the deeper meaning of words to facilitate human communication.

Last year, I decided to use localization techniques to uncover the cultural context in English for Turkish names. I wanted to share with the English speaking world the spiritual and ethereal nuances of Turkish names. Equally, I wanted to provide Turkish speaking peoples with a better understanding of their names in English. I used generative AI imagery to conjure visuals to help with comprehension.

Ayaz (m) - Frosty, cool breeze at night under the moon, Turkic Kelebek (f) - Butterfly (less common), Turkic Neslihan (f) - Noble lady, Turkic Erhan (m) - Solider King, Turkic Yıldız (f) - Star throne of destiny, Turkic Esra (f) - Night journey towards Heaven. Turkish spelling, Arabic, Hebrew Mehtap (f) - moonlight under a full moon, Turkic, Persian Burcu (f) - sweet fragrance, Turkic Aslan (m) - Lion, Turkic

Damla (f) - Raindrop, Turkic Yağmur (f) - Rain that nourishes the harvest, Turkic Tayfun (m) - Typhoon in reference to the great storm of wind and water. Arabic, Greek, Hindi, Chinese Burak (m) - Lightening used to transport the winged-horse with messages from Heaven to the Prophet, Turkish spelling, Arabic Kıvılcım (f) - The sparkling glimmer of a flame, Turkic Deniz (m) - The son of the sea, Turkic

Since modern Turkish culture was forged over thousands of years of civilization, religions and migration, many names can be found in the Levant region, the Caucasus region and Central Asia.

Bilgehan (m) - wise leader, Turkic
Özlem (f) - forgone yearning, Tturkic
Nurdan (f) - holy illumination, Arabic-Turkic
Ayhan (m) - king of the moon, Turkic
Bulut (m,f) - heavenly clouds, Turkic
Aylin (f) - moonhalo, Turkic
Betül (f) - nobly chaste, Turkic, Arabic
Selçuk (m) - skilled orator, Turkic
Neris (f) - dwelling in ones sights, Circassian

Göksel (m, f) - heavenly sky, Turkic
Rüzgar (m, f) - wind of destiny, Turkic-Persian
Elif (m, f) - elegantly forthright, Arabic
İpek (f) - pure silk, Turkic
Emine (f) - fearlessly steady, Turkish spelling, Arabic

Once subscriber named Sinem lamented the definition of her name in English “my breast”. This is where cultural specialists can help. After my research, I localized a more accurate translation: “my heart” in modern English and “my bosom” in 19th-20th Century English. The myopic translation of Sinem to breast occurred without the necessary context. Now, Sinem has a deeper knowledge of her name in English to share with other English speakers- a less awkward definition, too.

Then, there was Çağri, who said his name means “call”. After I looked into it, the name Çağri has more significance than simply to give a ring. I understand Çağri to mean “The Call” as in having a higher appellation to distinguish things or people. English’s article the makes a difference.

After posting the content on Instagram for the world to see, the results were interesting, to say the least. The discussion opened debate about who owns the name. Does an Arabic origin name, even with a Turkish spelling, make it Arab or Turkish? What role does cultural assimilation play in the adaption of names? Or, if name origin signifies identity. Can someone with a Hebrew name be Turkish? Subjective and complex conversations, indeed.

There was a little sexism in the comments section, but appreciation overshadowed it. I did receive some defensive feedback from a few accounts identifying as Greek, and there is some culture clash there. Mostly, I learned much from the comments section, which was filled with Turkish, Caucasian, and Circassian peoples sharing information and adding rich value that is not readily available online.

Did I use MT? Absolutely, it helps me check for errors. If you are conducting research and want a reliable free resource for translation, I find Google Translator Toolkit to be of such high quality these days. Eight years ago, I would have hesitated to recommend MT. Now, it offers interpreter mode, website and word selection, emails, off-line features, and audio and image translation.

Did MT fail at some of the translations? Absolutely. The localized versions of these names required researching and reading various Turkish source material. Then, I combed through English thesauruses to find the best matches. All of which, MT missed because language AI has limits.

MT can be a fast friend, too. It is important to cross check MT with other translation engines, and look for deviations. If you have no foreign language knowledge, be wary of translations regarding highly contextual content. The more dense the cultural context, the weaker the translation. This is especially true for sub-cultural feeds.

Since MT makes mistakes, traditional linguists are still safe professionally as translators and interpreters. However, what this looks like in ten years will be a different story. The deeper your research touches on the nuances of human interaction and cross-cultural context, the more secure your job will be.

One huge growth area for linguists is audio translation, especially if you are multilingual. I expect companies with a stake in this to hire multilingual analysts who can break down complex audio and help transition it to databases to improve AI.

At this point, the robotics industry is not far from multilingual robots. Our jobs are going to be helping train the AI systems. I can see a future where human linguists serve as a polygraph of sorts to detect the virtual people and humanoids from human beings. That is why we still need to learn the languages ourselves.

The more intertwined our cultures become due to the nature of global communications and AI, the greater need there will be for language and cultural studies. I view the neural network component of machine translation, differing from statistical machine translation, as merely an advanced stepping stone to global human communication and understanding.

Overall, linguists still have valuable roles to play in the evolution of what being a translator and interpreter means. In a way, there is an immense responsibility for linguists to help preserve the integrity of human culture. In a sense, linguists will be guardians of human language and communication bridging the gap between human and machine.

Or, has this always been the mission?

~E

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Silent Suffering: Domestic Abuse and Cultural Barriers in Russia

I came across a video on Russian social media. It grabbed my attention. Let me explain why.

Former Chechen professional wrestler Iznaur Abdullaev was filmed assaulting his wife by a neighbor from a window over looking the sidewalk near their apartment complex in Moscow. The incident occurred about two weeks ago. Typically, I don’t share images or videos of violence. I am making an exception in this case.

The video demonstrates the impact of fear that comes from the inability of a woman to protect herself when faced with a consistent physical threat from a man in a superior position of strength. It is an assumption, but likely she depends on him financially. With children around, the situation gets more burdensome for a woman to exit.

We hear the screams of a woman fighting for her life, pushing and trying to run away. We see him place her in a headlock, cutting off her oxygen and causing her to pass out. Then, he drags her limp body across the street with their little daughter crying mama in the background. Some female bystanders try to intervene but are incapable of fighting this man. He claims, “She needs her medicine, I am taking her home.”

Her husband was charged with a minor infraction and set free. Later on, reporters were able to obtain video footage of the interior home shattered with holes in the doors and walls. Neighbors speak of other incidents of violence and blood in the hallway. Towards the end, the wife answers the door for one reporter, giving a look of horror at the camera. She politely shuts the door.

In the aftermath, Abdullaev issued a statement on Instagram with his wife by his side that she was possessed by “djinns”. Westerners call them “genies.” It is akin to being possessed by a spirit, but not quite the devil, which only an imam can help cure, similar to a priest and an exorcism. It is also taboo to publicize mental health issues, if there is even a clinical issue here.

Even if Abdullaev’s genie story were true, why wouldn’t he carry her? Or bring the medicine to her, which would have been much faster. Instead, he incapacitates his wife like an opponent on the mat, dragging her body like a dead animal.

Domestic abuse- specifically male violence against women - is an issue that transcends religion and race. U.S. statistics alone report 1 in 4 women are victims and nearly 20,000 calls are made daily to hotlines. The beatings and abuse sometimes lead to the death of wives and girlfriends. As infamously watched by America in the 1990s O.J. Simpson trial, Nicole Brown reported domestic violence several times to 911 prior to her murder. Men who abuse their partners are not necessarily active in other criminal activity; however, Simpson did spend nine years in prison for armed robbery nearly one decade after his wife’s death.

Even though domestic abuse is a global problem, the Abdullaev incident brings to mind some cultural differences regarding counter-terrorism efforts. For instance, Chechnya banned bride kidnapping in 2015, which is common enough practice that a film was made to reinforce against the dangerous, un-Islamic practice. While some couples use it as a means to elope, there are several incidences of bride theft used to force a woman into marriage.

The question hinges on virginity, which is an important aspect of her value. So, a woman’s success in life depends highly on her ability to marry well the first time. After marriage, there is precedent in North Caucasian Muslim culture that men run the family because men are responsible for their wives. Non-family men avoid interactions with the wives of Chechen and Dagestani men. How a husband treats his wife, is no one else’s business.

In these cultures, other men and women are careful to intervene in a marriage. In the North Caucasus Muslim community, a woman’s recourse to divorce her husband, regardless of the reason, depends highly on the support of the other men in her family. It can be done amicably, but without this critical family support, a woman in this type of situation, has no reliable exterior support system.

In “The Gift of Fear”, Gabin de Becker encourages women to view their position in an abusive relationship as a “choice”. I agree with him. But the option to choose to leave is a Western construct. There are support structures, funded by the government and private donations, outside of the extended family to enable choice.

In the U.S., there are clandestine networks, from the police departments and detectives, working with battered women’s shelters. Organizations arrange donations that offer professional clothing and training to assist with jobs. There is a network of paid temporary housing with covert locations for women and their children.

In the Russian Federation, women do not have the same level of recognition and support systems to exit domestic abuse. In 2017, the Russian State Duma decriminalized domestic abuse unless the violence results in “severe bodily harm”. Anna Rivina argues there is no tangible support from the government to protect and support victims of domestic abuse. Let’s say Abdullaev’s wife is ethnically Russian, her options in Moscow are limited, too.

Many of the women who joined ISIS and Al-Nusra from the Caucasus region were following boyfriends and husbands. The more popular narrative on the news are the jihadi brides, women who joined ISIS or other jihadist groups for arranged marriages. This is real, but far from the whole picture that comprises the tens of thousands of female foreigners stuck in Turkey and Syria.

Then, there are thousands of Russian-speaking jihadists and their spouses who lived in Europe. While the support for domestic violence may have been better in certain Western European nations than in Russia, the spousal obligation was still a factor. This is why the Chechen government agreed to repatriate many of the ethnic Chechen female and child-aged detainees.

The question of female choice is not as clear as it may seem for some Muslim communities. There is a correlation between the isolation of women, and their participation in their husband’s more nefarious activities due to a lack of power and options. Pressing Russia to change its domestic violence laws is a start. And, for nations with diaspora communities, there needs to be culturally-attuned approaches suitable for women in such confined circumstances.

Domestic abuse can impact society on a global scale when it comes to countering terrorism. There were women in detainee camps in Turkey and Syria or arrested for domestic terrorism charges, who were faced with similar fears as the victim in the video. Perhaps addressing the culture of isolated women, may help reduce the role of women and children who join terrorist organizations.

By recognizing the importance of exterior, independent support systems to help women leave, hide, and began anew, it could reduce the overall global impact of terrorist activities.

Just a thought.

~E

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Adapting Jihadist Networks: Challenges and AI Solutions in Counter-Terrorism

On social media, jihadist networks have been blending into legitimate communities, making it difficult for counter-terrorism efforts to identify and monitor them. To effectively address this growing threat, there is a need to advance our technological and cultural understanding to enable AI to play a crucial role in counter-terrorism operations.

In the aftermath of global counterterrorism operations against ISIS, the virtual jihadist community has been forced to adapt. Those who escaped imprisonment or death on the battlefield have developed methods to hide in plain sight on social media. These rebranded networks now operate under legitimate-sounding titles. Consequently, distinguishing between benign and dangerous groups has become more challenging for counterterrorism efforts.

Around 2014, jihadist social media presence was at its peak, and while the international community recognized the problem, there lacked concrete legal solutions or plans in place to address it. For the Russian-speaking jihadist community, groups were openly named “Caliphate” or “Islamic State.” Al-Nusra supporters used variations of names like “Al-Sham.”

As global counter-terrorism efforts intensified, targeting recruitment platforms, social media accounts, and cyber-criminal networks, jihadists began creating new groups with less obvious titles. Over the past few years, these members have been lying low and expanding their networks. They aim to revive Islamic State’s organized terror and al-Nusra’s disorganized chaos by stealthily returning to social media.

By leveraging legal and linguistic nuances, these users have become adept at navigating the cyber environment. Many group names now include terms like “Islam” or interest queries such as “religion,” and other innocuous references to the Qu’ran and Hadith. This makes it difficult for nations to shut down these networks due to strong protections for religious freedom and speech. This is especially true for European and American governmental systems that battle for privacy laws.

Groups like “Al-Islam” appear to be ordinary communities for Muslims. This academic chat is run by Dr. Ihsan who answers questions from subscribers and explains aspects of the Qur’an and Hadith. Mainly, Al-Islam is a platform for Russian-speaking Muslims seeking religious education. Al-Islam is open to the public, a rarity these days for groups with potential terrorist links. However, the broader themed open channels tend to feed the more nefarious accounts with shared subscribers.

Social media accounts requiring administrator approval for access often raise suspicion. For example, the Russian language Al-Furqan, which has existed for several years, is currently set to private. The administrator may have legitimate reasons to exclude Russian hecklers from insulting or harassing the platform. However, deciphering where counter-terrorism efforts should focus is increasingly difficult as many of these private channels appear unobtrusive on the surface.

However, if you Google Al-Furqan, there will be a flurry of results. Al-Furqan is the 25th chapter of the Qur’an, and in English it means the Criterion. Surely there are discussions on jihad on these websites and groups that have nothing to do with terrorism. This is precisely why the nature of hidden networks lurking in plain site is challenging for countering terrorist activities.

Another difficulty is the religious nature of the discussions, necessitating deep knowledge of Islam. There is a distinction between general Islamic teachings, Wahhabism, and the ideologies of Islamic State and Al-Nusra within the Russian Muslim community. Al-Furqan professes a Wahhabi interpretation, but not necessarily evocative of violence. The trick for counterterrorism operations is that among the zealous subscribers are terrorist networks. Without leveraging Dark web OSINT, the main path to determine the group members, is to join and listen, which is a whole other can of worms.

As technology advances, human strategies to circumvent detection also evolve. On the one hand, algorithms have improved to detect political or social issues on social media to either ban or minimize reach. While algorithms have improved in identifying political or social issues on social media, users find ways to navigate around these systems. Until AI can precisely analyze multilingual audio, human analysts will remain essential in identifying the ideological proliferation that led to the societal blackhole of ISIS and AQ.

Despite Russian efforts, the region’s Muslim population has increasingly leaned towards Wahhabism over the past two decades. President Putin has the support of Chechnya, which is a cultural impactful society in the North Caucasian community. Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov’s promotion of a self-described non-Arab “Chechen Muslim identity” enforces measures to distance its people from Wahhabi culture. For the Chechen government, Wahhabism is synonymous with terrorism.

Tajikistan, while more secular than Chechnya, is set to ban many hijab styles, allowing only traditional headscarves. The Tajik government claims that hijabs of Arab lineage are not part of their indigenous culture, aiming through legal measures to protect their people. This move follows four months after the Crocus City Hall massacre involving ethnic Tajik networks. By restricting religious freedom, Tajikistan and Chechnya are attempting to counter terrorism by eradicating Wahhabi cultural influences.

In part, this results in the extremist networks ability to attract potential followers under the perception, which is reinforced by these laws, that Islam is not allowed in their home countries. The restrictions of COVID requiring all people to wear masks only fuels the fire of prejudice against niqab. Outside of Central Asia and the Caucasus, the support for Wahhabi trends appears to prevail in Eurasian Muslim diasporas in Europe.

This is especially evident in countries such as France, Germany, Austria, Turkey, and Poland. One gauge is the trend of women's hijab, which is a topic I have written on in more detail for the Cyber Defense Review at West Point. The Central Asian and Caucasian hijab styles of the 21st Century tend to involve colorful headscarves, and form-fitting dresses. The styles more popular among Eurasian Wahhabi culture today, such as muted brown and black shades of abaya, niqab and, the rarer burqa, are associated historically to the Arab Gulf States like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait. However, in the context of Arabian Peninsula culture, niqab has no terrorist connotation let alone an indicator for extremism.

Niqab is a hijab style associated with extremism in Russia, so it is interesting that in late May 2024 Russian courts declared wearing the veil permissible in the Russian Federation. The court found no empirical link between wearing the niqab and terror-related jihadism, viewing a ban on the niqab as a violation of human rights and religious freedom. This rationale stands out in Russia where homosexuality is illegal and the LBGTQ movement is under surveillance.

The decision by the Russian court, supported by President Putin, suggests a preventive, strategic move to temper potential unrest among the Muslim population. President Putin does not speak against Wahhabism directly, which would be offensive to the Gulf States with whom Russia does business. The rise of ethnic Avar Khabib Nurmagomedov from Dagestan on UFC for Mixed Martial Arts, who practices a conservative form of Islam, and his direct, calm messages on Islam and his people, may have influenced President Putin's view on the subject.

There is a balance between leaving groups on the fringe of society room to express themselves. As it does in the world of physics, it serves society to permit a low-level of temperance for extremist discussion to prevent societal implosion. This is precisely the implosion point which led to the massive onslaught of ISIS supporters from Eurasia nearly ten years prior.

On the bright side, AI can be counterterrorism's best ally. The better we analyze and understand the cultural outliers of hidden networks, the more detail and nuance the data sets can have to train AI. In the world of statistical linguistics and audio translation, there is still room for improvement, but the time is nigh for audio-enabled AI in the counterterrorism realm for a safer cyber environment. This translates to a more stable, physical environment in reality.

To effectively combat the evolving threat of jihadist networks on social media, it is essential to enhance our technological capabilities and cultural understanding. By advancing AI technologies to accurately analyze multilingual and culturally nuanced content, we can improve our ability to detect and counter these hidden threats at the velocity of growth. As we continue to refine AI for counterterrorism purposes, we must also ensure that our efforts respect human rights and foster global cooperation.

~E

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